DWS: Raises gold price forecast to a target of $3,750 per ounce by June next year; the Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates at the earliest in the fall

According to the Zhitong Finance APP, DWS recently released its market outlook for June 2025. Vincenzo Vedda, DWS's Global Chief Investment Officer, mentioned that gold has risen about 25% this year, performing outstandingly. Factors supporting gold include ongoing geopolitical risks, declining confidence in the US dollar, increased global liquidity, and continued purchases by central banks. This pattern is expected to persist, and DWS has raised its target price to USD 3,750 per ounce by June next year. Additionally, it is anticipated that the Federal Reserve will continue to be cautious regarding inflation risks, with interest rate cuts likely starting in the fall of this year, and four more cuts before mid-2026. As for the European Central Bank, it has lowered the main interest rate for the eighth consecutive time to 2% at the beginning of June. With inflation in the Eurozone under control, further room for rate cuts is expected to diminish. DWS pointed out that the US stock market is currently slightly above the levels at the beginning of 2025, while the European market has seen significant increases, especially in Germany. However, the risks facing the global economy remain relatively high, and stock valuations primarily depend on corporate earnings. In the global market, DWS expects corporate earnings to continue growing this year and next. The S&P 500 index has outperformed the average, driven by the AI boom and overall growth in digital technology. DWS predicts a total return of about 6% for global stocks over the next 12 months. Moreover, companies have significantly improved their ability to respond to the changing market environment. Even with a relatively optimistic outlook for the stock market over the next 12 months, investors should closely monitor changes in bond market yields. DWS expects bond yields to continue fluctuating but stabilize at current levels over the next 12 months, making bonds an attractive investment option. In uncertain market conditions, portfolios must cover a diverse range of asset classes to mitigate risks. DWS anticipates that the yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds will stabilize around current levels, but there is a risk of significant increases. The forecast for next June's yield is 4.5%. Faced with the multilateral tariff disputes in the US and a weak consumer sentiment environment, corporate investment intentions have declined, dragging down US economic growth. DWS predicts that US economic growth will only be 1.2% in 2025 (compared to 2.8% in 2024). As for Europe, the forecast for economic growth in 2025 is 1.1%, slightly lower than the US, but an improvement compared to the 0.8% growth rate in 2024. Regarding the outlook for US stocks, the market shows signs of stabilization in the short term, but if there are further negative developments in US tariff policies, the situation could reverse at any time. Technology stocks are expected to continue dominating the S&P 500 index. The forecast for the S&P 500 index is expected to reach 6,100 points by next June. European stocks have significantly outperformed US stocks this year, but whether this strong momentum can continue depends on when corporate earnings downgrades will end. The valuation discount of European stocks relative to US stocks has narrowed significantly. The forecast for the European Stoxx 600 index is expected to reach 570 points by next June. In terms of emerging markets, DWS believes that Chinese stocks are more attractive than Indian stocks. Sentiment and performance in emerging market stocks have slightly improved, with the Chinese market standing out, showing improvements in overall corporate and consumer technology stocks. In contrast, Indian stock valuations are relatively high, coupled with weak performance from several companies recently, making them less attractive In the foreign exchange market, the euro against the dollar is expected to see the dollar continue to weaken. The dollar has significantly retreated since the beginning of the year, with reasons including the trend of de-globalization, reduction of heavy dollar positions, and a cautious attitude of international investors towards the dollar. DWS anticipates that the dollar's weakness will persist, and the euro against the dollar may rise to 1.18 by June next year