The Market Review: Hang Seng Index Falls for Three Consecutive Days, Pop Mart Drops Over 5%, HAITIAN FLAV Slightly Rises on First Listing

Market attention is focused on the escalating tensions between Israel and Iran, and whether the United States will intervene. Hong Kong stocks continued to decline today (19th). The Federal Reserve announced that it would maintain interest rates, which was in line with expectations, and hinted that it is not in a hurry to cut rates. The "dot plot" released by the Fed, reflecting officials' predictions for future interest rate trends, shows that the federal funds rate is expected to be 3.9% by the end of this year, indicating a 0.5% rate cut by the Fed. The Dow Jones and Nasdaq fell 0.1% and rose 0.1% respectively on the evening of the 18th. At the time of writing, the yield on the 2-year U.S. Treasury bond fell to 3.939%, the yield on the 10-year bond was at 4.391%, and the U.S. dollar index was at 98.91. Dow futures were down 196 points or 0.4%, and Nasdaq futures were down 0.5%. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 26 points or 0.8% to close at 3,362 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index fell 1.2%. The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 1.25 trillion yuan.

The Hang Seng Index opened 90 points lower this morning, with the initial decline narrowing to 57 points, reaching a high of 23,653 points before moving downward. During the afternoon session, it fell by 525 points, hitting a low of 23,185 points, closing down 472 points or 2% at 23,237 points, marking a three-day decline (a total drop of 823 points or 3.4%); the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index fell 183 points or 2.1% to close at 8,410 points; the Hang Seng Tech Index fell 126 points or 2.4% to close at 5,088 points. The total trading volume for the day was 220.99 billion HKD. The total trading volume of northbound funds was 118.861 billion HKD, while southbound funds had a net purchase of 1.427 billion HKD today (compared to a net purchase of 1.242 billion HKD the previous day). Gold stocks generally declined, with Zijin Mining (02899.HK) down 3.8% and Lingbao Gold (03330.HK) down 8.7%.

Haitian Flavour Industry (03288.HK), which was 918 times subscribed in the public offering, listed today for the first time, closing at 36.5 HKD, up 0.6% from the listing price of 36.3 HKD, with a first-day trading volume of 2.885 billion HKD. Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing (00388.HK) fell 3.5% to close at 389.8 HKD.

【Hang Seng Index Declines for Three Consecutive Days, Consumer Stocks Under Pressure】

Consumer stocks were under pressure, with Mengniu Dairy (02319.HK) and Miniso (09896.HK) down 3.7% and 3.8% respectively, while Jiumaojiu (09922.HK) and Xiaobuxiang (00520.HK) fell 4.7% and 9.2%. New consumption stocks also declined, with Mixue (02097.HK) down 3.6%, and Maogeping (01318.HK) and Laopu Gold (06181.HK) each down 6.3% to 6.4%. Pop Mart (09992.HK) saw its stock price drop 5.3% to close at 248.6 HKD. Morgan Stanley updated its focus list for Hong Kong stocks, removing Pop Mart and adding China Pacific Insurance (02328.HK) HSBC's prime rate remains unchanged at 5.25%. HSBC Holdings (00005.HK) saw its stock price drop 0.7% to HKD 91.2, Hang Seng Bank (00011.HK) fell 1.5%, and Bank of China Hong Kong (02388.HK) decreased by 1.3%. HSBC Global Research published a report predicting a cumulative interest rate cut of 75 basis points this year and next, reflecting the bank's belief that U.S. inflation will remain well above the authorities' 2% inflation target during this period. The bank expects the Federal Reserve to cut rates by 25 basis points in September and December of this year and in March of next year.

【Over 1,600 Stocks Decline, Ctrip and Meituan Weak】

The Hong Kong stock market continued to weaken today, with a rise-and-fall ratio of 10 to 39 for main board stocks (compared to 18 to 27 the previous day). A total of 1,605 stocks declined (a drop of nearly 3%). Among the Hang Seng Index constituents, only 2 stocks rose while 83 fell, with a rise-and-fall ratio of 2 to 98 (previous day was 14 to 84). The market recorded short selling of HKD 31.816 billion today, accounting for 16.742% of the total turnover of shortable stocks at HKD 190.03 billion (previous day was 15.179%).

The market is paying attention to JD-SW (09618.HK) entering the tourism industry, with JD and Meituan-W (03690.HK) seeing their stock prices decline by 3.6% and 3.8%, respectively. Ctrip-S (09961.HK) and Tongcheng (00780.HK) fell by 4% and 10.6%.

Citigroup's research report indicated that JD Group recently announced that hotel merchants participating in the "JD Hotel PLUS Membership Program" will enjoy up to 3 years of zero commission. The bank anticipates some uncertainty in the industry landscape in the short term, believing that for new entrants to the market, providing hotel supply is not difficult. However, general hotels tend to offer rooms to online intermediary platforms that can bring in a large and stable customer base, especially in popular tourist destinations during peak seasons. Additionally, while acquiring users through subsidies may be relatively easy, retaining them is more challenging due to the need for stable product supply and customer service capabilities. The bank believes that existing online travel intermediary platforms can counter JD through stricter supply chain controls