Markets breathe easier as Trump hedges on Iran

A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Stella QiuSo, President Donald Trump said we may need to wait two more weeks until he decides whether to launch a U.S. attack on Iran. In the meantime, markets are mostly breathing a sigh of relief but remain cautious over conflict in the Middle East.Brent crude oil prices fell 2.5% on Friday, erasing some of their recent gains but still on track for a 3.7% weekly rise, up for a third straight week.Falling oil prices appear to have given European stocks a reason to cheer, with EUROSTOXX 50 futures (STXEc1) rising 0.7% and FTSE futures (FFIc1) up 0.3%. Nasdaq futures (NQc1) and S&P 500 futures (ESc1) were both 0.2% lower.Some analysts have pointed to Trump’s two-week deadlines for other key decisions, including in letters to U.S. trade partners on tariff negotiations, and the hope is that Tehran in the interim will be pressured to come to the negotiating table.Stocks were mixed in Asia on Friday, with Japan and Australia falling while China was higher. South Korea’s share benchmark (.KS11) outperformed with a jump of 1.1%, topping the 3,000 level for the first time since early 2022, after newly elected President Lee Jae Myung announced a stimulus spending plan.The U.S. dollar was also on the back foot, although it is set for a weekly gain of 0.5% on safe-haven flows spurred by the Middle East conflict. Still, one week of gains would not reverse the recent declining trend and many analysts expect the dollar’s losses have further to run.China kept its benchmark lending rates unchanged on Friday as widely expected while data from Japan showed core inflation at a two-year high, keeping pressure on the Bank of Japan to hike rates again. Investors, however, doubt that such a move would come before December.Overnight, a number of central banks in Europe sent out dovish signals, including Norway’s central bank which delivered its first rate cut since 2020. The Swiss National Bank cut rates to zero and did not rule out going negative, while the Bank of England held policy steady but saw a need for further easing.Key developments that could influence markets on Friday:– Germany PPI data for May– UK retail sales data for May– ECB releases its economic bulletinHow interest rates have changed among G10 central banks(By Stella Qiu; Editing by Edmund Klamann)