Powell's first day of congressional testimony: reiterates a wait-and-see approach, does not rule out the possibility of an early rate cut, but June and July data are very important

When asked about the possibility of a rate cut in July, Powell said, "Many paths are possible," suggesting that inflation may not be as strong as expected, and a decline in inflation along with a weak labor market could mean an earlier rate cut. Powell stated that the data from June and July would show the impact of tariffs on inflation, with at least some tariffs being borne by consumers; the Federal Reserve has not cut rates so far due to the outlook for rising inflation and the uncertainty brought by tariffs; if inflation is brought under control, they will cut rates as soon as possible, rather than later, and do not want to specify which meeting will take action, as there is no rush to cut rates because the economy remains strong; the dollar remains the number one safe-haven currency, and the volatility of U.S. Treasury bonds in April did not affect this status, while the narrative of a dollar decline is exaggerated; the economy will slow down this year, with immigration being one of the reasons, and AI has the potential to replace a large number of jobs, though the current impact is still unknown. "New Federal Reserve News Agency": Powell does not rule out the possibility of a rate cut in July but suggests it is more likely to wait at least until September