The ceasefire has taken effect, and expectations for interest rate cuts have boosted optimistic sentiment, leading to a slight rise in global stock markets, a nearly 2% rebound in oil prices, and an increase in gold

On Wednesday, the 25th, the ceasefire agreement between Israel and Palestine was maintained, and the market increased its bets on interest rate cuts, driving a slight rise in global stock markets. However, investors remain cautious about the sustainability of the ceasefire, limiting the gains in risk assets. The US dollar and US Treasury bonds remained basically flat. Oil prices rebounded after a two-day decline. Spot gold rose slightly. Here are the movements of core assets: The three major US stock index futures were basically flat. European stocks rose slightly, with the pan-European index, German stocks, and British stocks up about 0.2%, and French stocks up about 0.1%. The Nikkei 225 index closed up 0.4%. The Tokyo Stock Exchange index closed up 0.03%. The Seoul Composite Index closed up 0.1%. Most US Treasury yields fell, with the benchmark 10-year US Treasury yield down about 1 basis point. The US dollar index, British pound, and euro were basically flat. The Japanese yen depreciated about 0.3%. Due to inflation in Australia cooling faster than expected, the Australian dollar's gains narrowed, with the market expecting the Reserve Bank of Australia to possibly cut interest rates as early as next month. Spot gold rose slightly by about 0.4%. Spot silver rose slightly by about 0.3%. US oil and Brent oil rose about 1.8%. Bitcoin rose about 0.7%, and Ethereum rose about 0.8%. Tim Waterer, chief analyst at KCM Trade, stated: "Geopolitical risks have eased, but the current ceasefire agreement is not solid. This gives risk assets (such as stocks) a reason to continue rising, although the increase remains cautious." Before the US stock market opened, the Nasdaq 100 index continued to rise slightly after hitting a new high on Tuesday. US oil and Brent oil rebounded, rising about 1.8%. Divergence in Fed Rate Cut Expectations Worsens, Officials Signal Caution The market has fully priced in that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates twice before the end of 2025, with the first cut more likely to occur in September rather than July, although recent bets on a July cut have slightly increased. Chetan Seth, an analyst at Nomura Securities, stated, "I do not believe the Federal Reserve will commit to cutting rates now; they may need a few more economic data points to confirm." Several Federal Reserve officials have expressed cautious attitudes. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari stated: "While recent inflation data is good, we need clearer signals regarding the impact of tariffs." New York Fed President John Williams believes: "It is reasonable to keep rates unchanged for now to observe the effects of policy changes." Federal Reserve Governor Michael Barr stated: "Tariffs are expected to push up inflation, so a 'wait-and-see strategy' should be adopted." Cleveland Federal Reserve President Beth Hammack said, "It may be necessary to maintain the current interest rates for some time." Boston Federal Reserve President Susan M. Collins stated, "A moderately tight policy stance is necessary at this time."