The U.S. tariff policy stirs the global copper market: since the beginning of this year, the deliverable inventory scale on the LME has plummeted by about 80%

Affected by the U.S. Section 232 investigation into copper imports, traders are shipping record amounts of copper to the U.S. to avoid potential import tariffs, leading to shortages in non-U.S. regions. Data shows that the deliverable inventory on the LME has plummeted by about 80% this year. As a result, the so-called tomorrow/next day price spread indicator surged further on Thursday to an astonishing premium of $98 per ton, the highest level since the historic short squeeze storm on the LME in 2021. Additionally, the spot copper premium over three-month futures reached as high as $300 per ton, also marking the highest level since the record surge in 2021. Regarding the future trend of copper prices, Goldman Sachs stated that it has raised its forecast for LME copper prices in the second half of 2025 to an average of $9,890 per ton and expects copper prices to peak at $10,050 per ton in August. Goldman Sachs believes that the timing of tariff implementation is a key variable. Goldman Sachs maintains its baseline scenario of a 25% tariff on U.S. copper imports before September