Investor Gary Black, the founder of The Future Fund, has issued a cautious outlook on Tesla Inc.’s TSLA upcoming second-quarter deliveries, saying that the EV giant is likely to miss estimates.What Happened: On Saturday, in a post on X, Black projected that the company would deliver around 370,000 vehicles in Q2, marking a 17% year-over-year decline, while falling short of consensus estimates by Wall Street analysts at 385,000, or 13% before estimates.“We expect TSLA 2Q deliv[erie] s due out next week to disappoint,” Black said, adding that the ideal re-entry price for the stock would be “in the $250 range,” which he notes is 30% below the price that his fund had exited a couple of weeks ago, at $358 a share.Black also cautions that the company’s widely anticipated, upcoming affordable models could end up cannibalizing its sales instead of expanding its total addressable market, if they end up being just stripped-down versions of the existing Model 3 or the Model Y.“If the 2023–2024 price-cutting experience repeats, a lower-priced, lower-cost model won't expand TSLA TAM or generate incremental volume since it will merely cannibalize the higher-priced trims,” he says.Instead, Black argues that Tesla would need to introduce an entirely new form factor, such as a compact hatchback or a low-priced pickup, to attract new customer segments and generate true volume growth.Why It Matters: Black has repeated his theory on cannibalization several times in the past, warning shareholders about this for the first time over two months ago.He has also repeatedly warned that the company’s second-quarter sales would be disappointing. Having said last week that Tesla’s CEO, Elon Musk, is unwilling to accept that at least some of this weakness is owing to the “brand taint associated with his right-wing political rhetoric and DOGE activities.”Other leading analysts, such as Mark Delaney of Goldman Sachs, have since lowered their price targets for the stock to $290, with a “Neutral” rating, citing the company’s substantial demand and brand-related issues.There have been several bullish takes on the stock as well, with Wedbush analyst Dan Ives raising the target to $500 while reiterating its “Outperform” rating last week.In a research note, Ives said, “We believe the march to a $2 trillion valuation for Tesla has now begun.”Price Action: Shares of Tesla were down 1.43% on Friday, ending the week at $323.79, but it is up 0.75% after hours.

TSLA

TSDD

TSLL

TSLQ

09366

07766

07366

TSLR

Investor Gary Black warns that Tesla's Q2 deliveries may disappoint, projecting around 370,000 vehicles, below Wall Street's estimate of 385,000. He suggests an ideal re-entry price of $250, 30% lower than his fund's recent exit at $358. Black cautions that upcoming affordable models could cannibalize sales rather than expand the market. Other analysts have mixed views, with Goldman Sachs lowering its price target to $290, while Wedbush raises it to $500, indicating differing outlooks on Tesla's future.

- Investor Gary Black predicts Tesla Inc. will deliver approximately 370,000 vehicles in Q2, falling short of Wall Street's estimate of 385,000.  
- He warns that upcoming affordable models may cannibalize sales rather than expand the market, suggesting Tesla needs to introduce entirely new vehicle types for true growth.  
- Other analysts have adjusted their price targets for Tesla, with Goldman Sachs lowering it to $290, while Wedbush remains optimistic, raising it to $500.

Benzinga

Tesla

GraniteShares 2x Short TSLA Daily ETF

Direxion Daily TSLA Bull 2X Shares

AXS TSLA Bear Daily ETF

XI2CSOPTSLA-U

XL2CSOPTSLA

XI2CSOPTSLA

GraniteShares 2x Long TSLA Daily ETF

Goldman Sachs

Gary Black Warns Tesla Q2 Deliveries Will 'Disappoint' — Says Cheaper Models Could Cannibalize Sales And See Ideal Re-Entry 22% Below Current Levels