Non-farm data becomes a touchstone for bulls in the bond market as traders increase positions betting on the continuation of the upward trend
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Bond traders have recently rapidly built long positions in U.S. Treasuries, hoping that the non-farm payroll report for June, to be released on Thursday, will provide momentum for a rebound in the bond market. Despite an unexpected increase in job vacancies in May triggering a sell-off in the bond market, long positions continue to accumulate. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury has fallen from 4.4% to 4.185%. Strong expectations for employment data may affect the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations; if non-farm payrolls are close to 200,000, the probability of a rate cut will drop to zero
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