Guohai Securities: The continuous layout of "giants" reflects industrial opportunities and certainty, and the commercialization closed loop of the perovskite industry is gradually approaching

According to the Zhitong Finance APP, Guohai Securities released a research report stating that silicon manufacturers and other "cross-border" giants are gradually laying out their plans, while some startup companies are gradually focusing on differentiated markets such as flexible modules. The slow pace of industry capacity planning may be related to technological maturity and intense competition in the photovoltaic industry. Continuous breakthroughs in efficiency and the successive layouts by "giants" reflect industry opportunities and certainty. Based on information from Renshuo Photovoltaics, it is estimated that in the mature stage of the industry, when the module efficiency is 22% and the price per watt is 1 yuan, a 1GW monocrystalline module project can recover its investment cost in about 1.6 years. The theoretical efficiency limit of perovskite is high, and technological iteration may drive continuous improvement in module efficiency, thereby enhancing price competitiveness, bringing the commercialization of the industry closer.

The main points of Guohai Securities are as follows:

What is the current progress of monocrystalline and tandem perovskite?

1. Technological iteration drives continuous improvement in module efficiency. In March 2025, Xina Photovoltaics achieved a conversion efficiency of over 24% for its 19.48cm2 modules; in June 2025, Renshuo Photovoltaics achieved a conversion efficiency of over 19% for its 0.72m2 mass-produced commercial modules; in April 2025, Longi Green Energy achieved a conversion efficiency of 34.85% for its perovskite/silicon dual-side experimental cells; GCL-Poly expects its commercial mass-produced modules to reach a conversion efficiency of 26% by the end of 2025.

2. Capacity construction has entered the GW mass production stage, with at least three GW-level production lines expected to be put into operation by 2025, covering both monocrystalline and tandem routes.

3. Silicon manufacturers and other "cross-border" giants are gradually laying out their plans, while some startup companies are gradually focusing on differentiated markets such as flexible modules. The slow pace of industry capacity planning may be related to technological maturity and intense competition in the photovoltaic industry. The intervention of "anti-involution" policies and endogenous technological iteration is expected to promote industry development, with subsequent planned capacity of over 33GW expected to gradually materialize.

How do different paths of tandem perovskite compare?

Perovskite tandem cells: Efficiency breaks through the limits of monocrystalline, with various technological paths continuously explored. From a structural classification perspective: The two-terminal integrated structure has low costs and can reuse some monocrystalline battery technologies; the four-terminal mechanical stacking structure allows for flexible selection of sub-battery materials and processes, without the need to consider current matching issues. Compared to the four-terminal mechanical stacking, the two-terminal integrated structure has higher requirements for structural design and process compatibility, but has significant potential for cost reduction, making it a choice for many manufacturers and possibly the mainstream in the future. From a material classification perspective: It can be divided into perovskite/PERC, perovskite/TOPCon, perovskite/HJT, perovskite/CIGS, and all-perovskite batteries. The perovskite/silicon tandem battery is currently the upgrade choice for silicon batteries.

From the equipment perspective, how is the preparation process and equipment selection for tandem perovskite?

Monocrystalline perovskite batteries and modules are integrated devices, with an integrated manufacturing process that has formed a basic plan, where the quality of the film layer has a significant impact on the performance of perovskite batteries. The preparation process is mainly divided into wet and dry methods; the choice of process determines the application equipment. The slit coating method has advantages such as good film formation control and safety, making it the mainstream preparation process for perovskite layers, driving the demand for slit coating machines. Coating equipment is commonly used for the preparation of transport layers and electrode layers. Laser equipment is key to achieving circuit connections, with high precision requirements From the perspective of secondary investment, how to view the current investment opportunities in perovskite equipment?

Continuous breakthroughs in efficiency and the sequential layout of "giants" reflect industrial opportunities and certainty. According to information from RenShuo Solar, when calculating the mature stage of the industry, with a module efficiency of 22% and a single watt price of 1 yuan, a 1GW monocrystalline module project can recover its investment cost in approximately 1.6 years. The theoretical efficiency limit of perovskite is high, and technological iterations may drive continuous improvements in module efficiency, thereby enhancing price competitiveness, bringing the industrial commercialization loop closer.

Target Aspects

It is recommended to pay attention to: complete line equipment suppliers, such as Maiwei Co., Ltd. (300751.SZ), S.C. (300724.SZ), J.S. Machine (000821.SZ), etc.; high-value coating equipment suppliers, such as Weidao Nano (688147.SH), Aolaide (688378.SH), etc.; laser equipment, such as Jietu (688025.SH), Delong Laser (688170.SH), etc.

Industry Rating

The photovoltaic industry chain is under pressure, and the contraction of downstream capital expenditure limits the performance growth momentum of equipment manufacturers, leading to a downgrade of the industry rating to "neutral."

Risk Warning

The R&D progress of perovskite may fall short of expectations, risks of changes in technological pathways, downstream application demand may not meet expectations, risks of intensified market competition, risks of macroeconomic fluctuations, risks of price wars due to overcapacity exceeding expectations, and the public information used in research reports may have risks of information lag or untimely updates