Employment data will influence the Federal Reserve's next move, and gold stabilizes before the data release

Zhitong
2025.07.03 09:28

Gold stabilized after rising for three consecutive days, with key U.S. employment data set to be released later on Thursday, which could impact the outlook for the Federal Reserve's monetary easing path. Earlier this week, gold rose more than 2%, and is currently trading close to $3,353 per ounce. Traders are focusing on the upcoming non-farm payroll report, which is expected to show that the U.S. economy added 106,000 jobs in June, the lowest level in four months. On Wednesday, another report from ADP Research indicated that U.S. private sector employment fell for the first time in two years, prompting traders to increase bets on at least two interest rate cuts before 2026. A significant deterioration in the labor market could force officials to cut rates as early as this month, although Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell emphasized the resilience of the labor market and stressed a "wait-and-see" approach to assess the impact of tariffs on inflation. Lower borrowing costs tend to benefit gold, as it does not yield interest. So far this year, gold prices have risen by more than a quarter, and are currently about $150 shy of the record set in April. The price increase of this precious metal has been driven by safe-haven demand amid escalating geopolitical and trade tensions. Strong gold purchases by central banks and inflows into gold-backed exchange-traded funds have also supported the rise in gold prices. Meanwhile, concerns over the U.S. deficit persist. President Donald Trump's comprehensive tax and spending plan is expected to increase U.S. debt by about $3.4 trillion over the next decade. If this bill, currently under consideration in the House of Representatives, is passed, the safe-haven appeal of gold may further strengthen. After Trump claimed to have reached an agreement with Vietnam, investors continue to monitor the progress of U.S. trade negotiations. As the July 9 deadline for raising tariffs approaches, there are signs that, given the current resilience of the U.S. economy, investor concerns about the president's erratic stance on tariffs are easing. Current spot gold is nearly flat at $3,353.10 per ounce. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index remains stable. Silver rose more than 1%, while palladium and platinum fell