Understanding the Market | CHALCO is down over 3%, the supply and demand pattern in the off-season is weak, institutions say low inventory helps maintain high aluminum prices

CHALCO is currently down over 3%, as of the time of writing, down 3.15%, reported at HKD 5.23, with a trading volume of HKD 175 million. On the news front, U.S. employment data for June shows economic resilience, leading to a downward adjustment in market expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. Cathay Securities pointed out that demand for industrial metals weakens in the off-season, with the operating rate in copper and aluminum processing continuing to decline, inventory accumulation, and a weak supply-demand pattern. On a macro level, the suspension period for U.S. reciprocal tariffs is about to end, and attention is focused on changes in overseas copper inventory and the impact of U.S. tariffs on demand expectations for copper, aluminum, and other industrial products, which may exacerbate metal price fluctuations. CITIC Construction Investment noted that the dividend attributes of the aluminum sector have increasingly been recognized and valued by the market this year, due to the recovery and stabilization of profit levels in the aluminum industry at high levels. From January to May this year, domestic electrolytic aluminum consumption grew by 4.9%, and there are concerns that if growth remains at 2% for the whole year, negative growth may occur in the second half. However, even if global consumption growth is viewed at 2% for the entire year, supply and demand are still expected to maintain a tight balance, with global exchange inventories at historically low levels, weak ability to withstand supply disruptions, and low inventory effectively resisting the impact of the consumption off-season, helping aluminum prices maintain high levels, corresponding to high industry profits