Morgan Stanley: Hims target price of $40 has an 18% downside potential, with the GLP-1 lawsuit tug-of-war being the biggest variable

According to Zhitong Finance APP, Morgan Stanley maintains a "hold" rating on Hims & Hers Health Inc (HIMS.US) with a target price of $40, indicating about an 18% downside from the current stock price. The firm believes that although Hims has growth potential in personalized medicine and telehealth, the recent termination of its partnership with Novo Nordisk (NVO.US) and Eli Lilly's (LLY.US) legal action against compounders have cast a shadow over the company's prospects, warranting close attention from investors. Morgan Stanley points out that Hims currently has a market capitalization of approximately $9.892 billion, with a 52-week stock price range of $13.48 to $72.98. According to the firm's forecasts, Hims' earnings per share (EPS) for the fiscal years 2024 to 2027 are expected to be $0.54, $0.79, $1.15, and $1.50, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 45.2x, 59.8x, 41.3x, and 31.7x. Despite the company's revenue growth, its profitability remains under pressure in the short term. Recently, Novo Nordisk abruptly terminated its partnership with Hims, raising market concerns about the company's business model and compliance risks. Morgan Stanley specifically interviewed two legal experts to assess the potential impact of Eli Lilly's lawsuit against compounders on Hims. Both experts indicated that the court is unlikely to dismiss Eli Lilly's lawsuit, and the case may take 2 to 3 years to reach a preliminary ruling. The experts unanimously agreed that the legitimate intent of 503A compounding pharmacies is to provide personalized treatment plans for patients who cannot use FDA-approved medications, especially during drug shortages. However, one expert took a more conservative stance, advising clients to cease large-scale compounding once the GLP-1 drug shortage ends; while another expert believed that the 503A provision allows for customized compounding for different patient groups, despite the limited legal precedents. Regarding the lawsuit's prospects, professionals believe that the court may allow the case to proceed, and even if Eli Lilly's current claims have flaws, they may be refiled after amendments. The experts noted that Eli Lilly's claims in the lawsuit filed in Florida regarding compounding companies disparaging its brand image may have the highest chance of success. Additionally, the experts mentioned that the FDA updated its list of prohibited compounding drugs on June 26, but GLP-1 drugs were not included, which could serve as strong evidence for compounding companies to counter Eli Lilly's "overreach" allegations. Morgan Stanley emphasized that currently, Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk have not filed patent infringement lawsuits against compounding companies, but experts generally believe that such lawsuits may occur in the future. Since patent infringement falls under strict liability, compounding companies may find it difficult to prove that their use of semaglutide or tirzepatide does not constitute infringement. If they lose, compounding companies could face punitive damages of up to three times the compensation. In terms of valuation, Morgan Stanley's target price for Hims is based on a 3x revenue multiple (EV/S) for 2026 revenue expectations and a 0.08x revenue growth rate (EV/S/G). The firm believes that this valuation reflects a certain discount compared to other digital health and direct-to-consumer (DTC) healthcare companies, but also reflects the uncertainties and risks currently faced by the company Morgan Stanley pointed out that the main upside risks Hims faces in the future include: user growth exceeding expectations, successful expansion into high-potential markets such as weight loss and hormone replacement therapy (HRT), and profit margin improvements brought about by platform scale effects. The downside risks include the ongoing shortage of GLP-1 drugs, market share being eroded by competitors, and the impact of regulatory policy changes on manufacturing and telemedicine businesses. Overall, Morgan Stanley believes that Hims still has long-term value in the digital healthcare field, but there are high legal risks and business uncertainties in the short term, and investors should remain cautious