Polymarket Bettors See 50% Chance Of Fed September Rate Cuts As Trump Turns Up Heat On Powell

Cryptocurrency bettors now estimate a 50% possibility that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates for the first time in 2025 during its September meeting.What happened: As of this writing, the odds of a 25 basis point cut were at 50% on the decentralized prediction platform Polymarket. On the other hand, the odds that rates will remain unchanged from the current 4.25%-4.50% range were 44%.The probability of rates going unchanged during the July meeting was 96%.These bets were roughly consistent with the CME FedWatch tracker, which showed a 95% chance of rates remaining steady in July. For September, traders priced in a 62% chance of a 0.25% rate cut.Goldman Sachs economists also anticipate a rate cut in September, three months earlier than they had previously forecast, due to the lower-than-expected impact of tariffs.Polymarket, based on Polygon POL/USD, allows users to buy “Yes” and “No” shares in USDC USDC/USD stablecoin. The shares representing the correct outcome are paid out $1 USDC each upon market resolution.The platform is not accessible in the U.S. due to regulatory restrictions.Why It Matters: The jump in odds comes in the wake of President Donald Trump's escalating criticism of Fed Chair Jerome Powell.Trump reiterated his call for Powell to “resign immediately” and asked for a congressional investigation into allegations that the Fed Chair gave false information during a Senate Banking Committee testimony.On monetary policy, Trump has accused Powell of keeping interest rates “artificially high” and argued that the benchmark should be reduced to “1% or 2%,” or half of what it is now.Earlier this month, Powell said that Trump's tariff strategy had deterred the Federal Reserve from implementing a more dovish monetary policy. Trump’s Tariff Letters Spark ‘High Level Of Uncertainity And Volatility,’ Says Economist Mohamed El-Erian Image Credit: Jack Gruber / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images