Morgan Stanley raises gold price forecast for the fourth quarter to $3,800, prefers gold, silver, and copper futures

Morgan Stanley published a report on the metal industry, stating that the further weakening of the US dollar should provide a tailwind for commodities. If inflation rises in the US, it may also attract capital inflows, and any economic stimulus policies from China would be an unexpected boon for the industry. However, the growth risks posed by US tariffs are increasing as the effects of prior stockpiling gradually fade. The firm prefers gold, silver, and COMEX copper.

The firm expects that starting August 1, tariffs on specific countries in the US will be raised again, and tariffs on industries such as steel, aluminum, and copper may also affect and push up cost inflation in the industrial sector. Exports continue to support China's metal demand, but this support may weaken as the tariff suspension comes to an end.

Morgan Stanley believes that the trend in the metal market will continue this year, with COMEX copper, gold, and silver having upward potential, while platinum is expected to stabilize after experiencing about a 50% increase. The firm raised its fourth-quarter gold price target to $3,800 per ounce, supported by ongoing demand from central banks and investors, driven by a weaker dollar, ETF buying, and a backdrop of continued uncertainty, while jewelry demand may rebound as consumers adjust to higher prices.

The firm anticipates gold prices of $3,500, $3,800, and $3,500 per ounce in the third and fourth quarters of 2025 and the first quarter of 2026, estimating annual prices of $3,313, $2,625, and $2,500 per ounce from 2026 to 2028.

However, Morgan Stanley also pointed out that there are many uncertainties in the industry—key issues include the path of US tariffs on countries and metals, the outcome of the US investigation under Section 232 on critical minerals, and whether China will introduce more stimulus measures