On July 25, the S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq in the U.S. stock market reached new historical highs. The Shanghai Composite Index also recently broke through 3,600 points, setting a new annual high. However, the tariff issue will return to the market's focus in August, which may bring uncertainties to the current global equity market &#34;celebration.&#34;
August 1 is the last day for Trump to postpone the implementation of &#34;reciprocal tariffs.&#34; Regardless of whether the U.S. extends the postponement period again, the U.S. will negotiate with major global economies on tariff issues in August.
Top international investment banks have issued warnings regarding the continuously rising U.S. stock market. On July 25, Goldman Sachs strategists warned that high-risk activities in the U.S. stock market are increasing, and indicators measuring market speculation sentiment have soared to historical highs, second only to the 2000 internet bubble and the 2021 retail investor frenzy.
Deutsche Bank has focused on market &#34;leverage,&#34; warning that the scale of investors borrowing money to trade stocks has become &#34;extremely hot,&#34; with margin debt totaling over $1 trillion in June, a historic high.
One of &#34;Wall Street's most accurate analysts,&#34; Bank of America’s Hartnett, also reiterated the risk of a bubble, pointing out that monetary easing policies and relaxed financial regulations are pushing up the level of bubble formation. He stated, &#34;The larger the retail investor scale, the greater the liquidity, the greater the volatility, and the larger the bubble.&#34;
In the face of rising market risks, the only thing that may extend the life of the U.S. stock market bull run is a rate cut by the Federal Reserve. It is no wonder that Trump has been constantly &#34;looking for trouble,&#34; personally visiting the Federal Reserve on July 24 to pressure Powell for a quick rate cut.
Economists in Goldman Sachs' research department stated in a recent report that the Federal Reserve may cut rates in September, which is three months earlier than previously predicted by Goldman Sachs. Goldman Sachs' Chief U.S. Economist David Mericle indicated that the likelihood of a rate cut in September is slightly above 50%. The Federal Reserve's interest rate decision announced on September 17 will undoubtedly influence global market trends.
Recent political changes in Japan have also impacted the yen and Japanese stock market trends.
After the ruling coalition of the Liberal Democratic Party and Komeito suffered a defeat in the Japanese House of Councillors election on July 20, the approval rating of Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba's cabinet has fallen to a new low. Although Prime Minister Ishiba publicly stated on July 23 that he would not resign, calls for accountability within the Liberal Democratic Party continue to grow.
According to the Japanese newspaper &#34;Mainichi Shimbun,&#34; Ishiba plans to resign in August after summarizing the reasons for the House of Councillors election defeat. The Liberal Democratic Party will then hold a presidential election, and a new prime minister will be elected at the extraordinary National Assembly convened in the fall.
In August and September, a series of &#34;major events&#34; in politics, economics, trade, and finance will unfold, from the U.S. to Japan, from tariff negotiations to Federal Reserve rate cuts. How will the direction of global capital markets change?
Market changes are unpredictable—too many variables need to be considered, and too many questions await answers. In late August, Wall Street Insights invites you to join us in Dalian for a seaside study tour, where you can enjoy sailing and fishing in the blue skies and clear waters, while also meeting like-minded individuals to discuss asset allocation trends behind closed doors. We also specially invite renowned economists such as Fu Peng and Cao Jingnan, the head of macro research at Dongfang Securities Research Institute and co-chief analyst of strategic macro, to serve as mentors for this study tour.
Share their latest insights on asset allocation and geopolitics in a closed-door seminar.
Teacher Fu Peng just visited Hong Kong, Sydney, Australia, and other places for research in July this year. In this closed-door seminar of the Dalian Wilderness Tour, everyone can also ask him to share his latest findings on the global market.
So far, nearly 20 high-net-worth individuals, mainly Alpha annual members, have confirmed their participation in this study tour event held from August 22 to 24, most of whom are business owners and senior executives in the financial industry. For detailed information about this Dalian Wilderness Tour study event, please refer to the event poster below, click the poster to register! Early bird discounts are available for registration now.
<img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/56ce0b56-1503-42b3-b9af-7e2f4685b630.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/56ce0b56-1503-42b3-b9af-7e2f4685b630.png"/>
Friends interested in this Dalian study tour might also consider bringing their families along. Dalian is located at the southernmost tip of the Liaodong Peninsula, with a long coastline, where the blue sea and sky complement the white sandy beaches; it boasts 5A-level scenic spots such as Tiger Beach Ocean Park and Jinshitan National Tourism Resort; and it is pleasantly cool in summer, making it a perfect summer retreat.
While you are participating in closed-door discussions with industry leaders like Fu Peng and Cao Jingnan about asset allocation trends, your family can also enjoy the beautiful scenery of the coastal city, and together you can set sail to explore the joys of sea fishing, savor northern cold-water seafood, and spend a wonderful weekend.
Finally, a reminder that the &#34;Meet·Wilderness Tour&#34; Dalian study tour event will be held from August 22 to 24. Interested friends can click here to register. If you want to know more details about the event, you can also click the image below to consult the Alpha assistant.
<img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/a8cf646a-a0d2-4e8d-8800-653ededba52d.jpeg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/a8cf646a-a0d2-4e8d-8800-653ededba52d.jpeg"/>
Risk Warning and Disclaimer
The market has risks, and investment requires caution. This article does not constitute personal investment advice and does not take into account the specific investment goals, financial conditions, or needs of individual users. Users should consider whether any opinions, views, or conclusions in this article are suitable for their specific circumstances. Investment based on this is at your own risk

Global stock markets are facing renewed attention on tariff issues against the backdrop of U.S. stocks reaching historic highs. Goldman Sachs and Deutsche Bank have warned of rising market risks, with investors' leverage usage being too high and bubble risks intensifying. The Federal Reserve may cut interest rates in September to support the market, and Trump is also pressuring for rate cuts. Changes in the Japanese political landscape are affecting the yen and Japanese stock trends

- On July 25, U.S. stock indices reached historic highs, while the Shanghai Composite Index surpassed 3600 points.  
- However, the upcoming tariff discussions in August may disrupt the current market euphoria, with major banks warning of increased risks and speculative behavior.  
- Additionally, potential Federal Reserve interest rate cuts in September could influence market dynamics, as political changes in Japan also impact the yen and Japanese stocks.

How far can the global stock market carnival go? Dalian study tour discussion: Chatting with top experts like Fu Peng about asset allocation trends