The U.S. imposes tariffs on imports from Switzerland, disrupting the global gold bar market, temporarily boosting New York gold prices?

The "reciprocal tariff" officially takes effect, and Swiss gold bars unexpectedly fall under the tax scope, providing new upward momentum for gold prices. According to CCTV News, on August 7 local time, the United States officially imposed an import tariff of up to 39% on Swiss goods. Key specification gold bars, which were previously expected to be exempt, were unexpectedly subjected to tariffs. According to media reports, the U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) clearly stated in a response letter to a Swiss refinery on July 31 that one-kilogram and 100-ounce gold bars should be classified under customs codes that require tariffs. This decision sharply contrasts with the industry’s previous expectations of an exemption and has created new pressure on trade relations between the U.S. and Switzerland. One-kilogram gold bars are the most common trading form on the New York Mercantile Exchange (Comex) and are a major product of Swiss gold exports to the U.S. It is estimated that in the 12 months ending in June, Switzerland exported gold worth $61.5 billion to the U.S., and at a 39% tariff rate, it now faces an additional tariff burden of $24 billion. A Document Disrupts Industry Expectations The core of this tariff controversy lies in the reinterpretation of customs codes. In a ruling clarifying a request from a Swiss refinery, CBP explicitly stated that one-kilogram and 100-ounce gold bars should be classified under customs code 7108.13.5500, which falls within the taxable range. Previously, the gold industry generally believed that these gold bars were subject to code 7108.12.10. Christoph Wild, president of the Swiss Manufacturers and Precious Metals Traders Association, pointed out: “The mainstream view was that precious metals remelted by Swiss refineries and exported to the U.S. could be transported tax-free.” He added that the customs code classification for different gold products "is not always that precise." This expectation gap has caught the Swiss refining industry off guard. According to media reports, several Swiss refineries have stated that they have spent months working with lawyers to study which gold products might be exempt. Due to increased uncertainty, two refineries have temporarily reduced or halted gold shipments to the U.S. The "Triangle" Gold Trade Pattern Disrupted The new U.S. tariff regulations directly impact the efficient physical flow process of the global gold market. For a long time, the global gold bar trade has formed a triangular route from London to New York, passing through Switzerland. The London market is accustomed to using large gold bars weighing about 400 troy ounces (approximately 12.5 kilograms), while the world's largest gold futures market, Comex, prefers the more manageable one-kilogram gold bars (approximately the size of a smartphone). As the world's largest gold refining center, one of the core businesses of Swiss refineries is to remelt large gold bars from London and cast them into one-kilogram gold bars required by the New York market. **This tariff directly affects one-kilogram gold bars, effectively blocking the key channel from Switzerland to New York, which may force the market to seek more expensive or less efficient alternatives, thereby reshaping the physical delivery path of global gold bars ** Short-term Gold Prices in New York May Be Pushed Higher Earlier this year, traders shipped large amounts of gold to the United States to avoid the anticipated tariffs from the Trump administration, which temporarily led to a historic high in Comex inventories and caused a brief shortage in the London market. However, this time the tariffs are aimed directly at the specifications of gold bars necessary for replenishing inventories, which may put Comex's inventory in a "only out, no in" situation, thereby pushing up gold prices in New York in the short term. This event occurs against the backdrop of gold prices already experiencing historic increases. Since the end of 2024, gold prices have risen by 27%, reaching as high as $3,500 per troy ounce. Concerns about inflation, worries about the U.S. government's debt levels, and the weakening status of the dollar as a reserve currency collectively create a macro environment for soaring gold prices. The U.S. tariff measures undoubtedly add another layer of uncertainty to this already hot market