Guolian Minsheng Securities: China's ship leasing industry continues to increase its global market share, optimistic about the future development of ship leasing companies

According to the Zhitong Finance APP, Guolian Minsheng Securities released a research report stating that in the first half of 2025, China's ship completion volume will reach 24.13 million deadweight tons, a year-on-year decrease of 3.5%, accounting for 51.7% of the global share. The new order volume will reach 44.33 million deadweight tons, accounting for 68.3% of the global share. Overall, the current development of China's ship leasing industry is stable, with steady expansion in scale and a continuous increase in global market share. The subsequent green transformation and the replacement of old ships can effectively ensure the speed of fleet expansion, coupled with future interest rate cuts, the bank believes that the development prospects of the ship leasing industry remain good. The main points of Guolian Minsheng Securities are as follows: Stock: The scale of China's leasing merchant fleet is steadily expanding, and the global share continues to increase. From the stock perspective, the scale of China's leasing merchant fleet is steadily expanding. As of the end of June 2025, the total deadweight tonnage of China's leasing merchant operating fleet reached 159 million tons, an increase of 4.55% compared to the beginning of the year; the total deadweight tonnage of orders on hand reached 21 million tons, an increase of 9.42% compared to the beginning of the year. By ship type, bulk carriers, container ships, and gas carriers account for a high proportion. While expanding in scale, China's leasing companies continue to increase their global market share. Currently, the total deadweight tonnage of China's leasing merchant fleet accounts for 9.30% of the global fleet, an increase of 0.2 percentage points compared to the end of 2024, with the increase mainly driven by bulk carriers and gas carriers. Increment: Both new deliveries and expirations have slowed down. In terms of deliveries, in the first half of 2025, the new ship leasing total tonnage added by Chinese leasing companies was 9.4 million tons, only 35.7% of the total increase for the entire year of 2024, mainly affected by the "301 investigation." Among the newly delivered ships, the total tonnage of new ships and second-hand ships accounted for 39% and 61%, respectively, with the proportion of second-hand ships increasing by 8.8 percentage points compared to 2024. The proportion of operating leases among newly delivered ships has increased, with financing leases and operating leases accounting for 71.7% and 28.3%, respectively, in the first half of 2025, with the proportion of operating leases increasing by 11.6 percentage points compared to 2024. In terms of expirations, the total tonnage of ships expiring in the first half of 2025 was 5.4 million tons, only 30.34% of the total expiration scale for the entire year of 2024. Green transformation: The proportion of energy-efficient ships has further increased. From the perspective of domestic leasing companies, as of the end of June 2025, the proportion of energy-efficient ships in China's leasing merchant fleet was 80%, an increase of 1 percentage point compared to the end of 2024. By ship type, the proportion of energy-efficient tankers and cruise/passenger ships has increased significantly, with the proportion of energy-efficient ships reaching 77% and 90% respectively by the end of June 2025, an increase of 3 percentage points and 5 percentage points compared to the end of 2024. From the perspective of the global fleet, as of the end of June 2025, the proportion of energy-efficient ships in the global fleet was 51%, an increase of 1 percentage point compared to the end of 2024, with slight increases in the proportion of energy-efficient ships among various ship types, including bulk carriers, tankers, and gas carriers. Ship age: The proportion of older ships has increased. From the stock perspective, as of the end of the first half of 2025, the proportion of ships aged 15 years and above accounted for 10.1% in terms of total tonnage, an increase of 1.5 percentage points compared to the end of 2024. Correspondingly, the proportions of ships aged 0-4 years and 5-9 years were 44.7% and 25.5%, respectively, decreasing by 0.9 percentage points and 0.6 percentage points compared to the end of 2024 From the perspective of incremental growth, the total tonnage of financing lease vessels aged 15 years and above in the first half of 2025 accounts for 18.2%, an increase of 7.3 percentage points compared to the end of 2024; the total tonnage of operating lease vessels aged 15 years and above accounts for 7.7%, with virtually no vessels aged 15 years and above in the new operating leases of 2024. Risk Warning: Uncertainty in tariff policies, geopolitical conflicts, and the risk of declining rental prices