Tariffs vs AI: what will determine Walmart stock price trajectory after Q2 earnings?

Walmart Inc (NYSE: WMT) is keeping the upward momentum ahead of its second-quarter release on August 21st.The retail behemoth is broadly expected to report about $174 billion in revenue on 74 cents a share of earnings for its fiscal Q2. A year ago, it had nearly $168 billion in revenue 67 cents of per-share earnings.Beyond numbers though, investors will be looking for updates on the impact of Trump tariffs and the company’s artificial intelligence (AI) investments on Thursday.Walmart stock is currently up some 25% versus its April low.Have tariffs hurt Walmart stock so far – and what lies ahead?According to Mizuho senior analyst David Bellinger, Walmart has weather the initial wave of tariff relatively well, with Q2 expected to show solid same-store sales growth of around 4.0%.However, the real test lies ahead in, in the third quarter, and beyond – as the retailer begins to pass on cost increases to consumer.In a recent CNBC interview, Bellinger agreed that consumer appetite has held up fairly well so far, but said risks remain if inflationary pressures intensify.According to him, accounting methods and tariff-related noise could result in increased volatility in Walmart’s gross margins in the near-term, but the company’s diversified product mix and value positioning could help cushion the blow.Plus, a 0.94% dividend yield on WMT shares incentivizes ownership amidst expected volatility.Can AI drive WMT shares up further in the second half of 2025?Beyond tariffs, Walmart’s investments in artificial intelligence could prove a material catalyst for future growth.The Bentonville-headquartered firm is yet to offer more colour on its AI investments, but Bellinger already flagged them as a potential driver of e-commerce expansion in the CNBC interview.He expects these tools to help improve personalization, streamline logistics, and improve inventory management – critical levers in a competitive retail landscape.If the NYSE-listed firm demonstrates meaningful progress in AI adoption in its quarterly release, it could unlock new efficiencies and deepen customer engagement, offering upside to an already strong Walmart share price performance.Investors should keenly hear for more on this front during the earnings call, the analyst added. Mizuho’s recommendation for Walmart stock ahead of Q2 earningsMizuho maintains its “outperform” rating on Walmart stock ahead of the retailer’s Q2 earnings on August 21st. Its $115 price target translates to 15% upside from current levels.This suggests David Bellinger has immense confidence in the NYSE-listed firm’s ability to absorb cost pressures while investing in next-gen retail technologies to push its share price up further from here.In short, with consumer demand holding steady and AI on the horizon, WMT share positioned not just to survive – but to lead – in a volatile macroeconomic environment.The post Tariffs vs AI: what will determine Walmart stock price trajectory after Q2 earnings? appeared first on Invezz