Citigroup's Dirk Willer: European business cycle turns, overweight U.S. stocks, bearish on the dollar

At the "2025 Asset Management Annual Conference," Dirk Willer, Head of Global Macro and Asset Allocation Research at Citigroup, shared investment views on major global markets for the second half of this year. Dirk Willer first outlined Citigroup's allocation views on various asset classes: overweight equities, underweight UK equities; neutral on government bonds, overweight emerging market bonds, underweight Japanese government bonds; underweight investment-grade credit in Europe and the US; neutral on commodities; short the US dollar, long the euro and some emerging market currencies. In terms of the stock market, Dirk Willer pointed out that the "American exceptionalism" has clearly returned, as evidenced by its performance relative to Europe and other parts of the world, with the core driver being the return of AI trading — the performance of the technology sector leading the US market and becoming a key support