Guosen Securities: In July, the prices of LCD TV panels fell month-on-month. Pay attention to the promotional stocking situation of TV brands in the second half of the year

According to the Zhitong Finance APP, Guosen Securities released a research report stating that in July 2025, the prices of 32, 43, 50, 55, and 65-inch LCD TV panels will be $36, $63, $95, $121, and $170 per piece, respectively, with prices for each size of LCD TV panels decreasing month-on-month by 5.3%/1.6%/7.8%/5.5%/3.4%; Omdia expects the prices of 32, 43, 50, 55, and 65-inch LCD TV panels in August to be $34, $62, $92, $118, and $167 per piece, with prices for each size of LCD TV panels decreasing month-on-month by 5.6%/1.6%/3.2%/2.5%/1.8%. According to TrendForce, some brand clients have revised their procurement orders for the third quarter, and the demand for TV panels was weak in July. As the year-end sales peak approaches, subsequent procurement volumes from brand clients are expected to increase.

The main points of Guosen Securities are as follows:

Market & Performance Review: From July 2025 to now, the panel (Shenwan) index has risen by 1.30%, and the average gross margin of major LCD manufacturers in China in Q1 2025 has improved year-on-year and month-on-month.

Market Review: From July 2025 to now, the panel (Shenwan) index has risen by 1.30%, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, and CSI 300 Index by 5.14pct, 8.12pct, and 4.72pct, respectively; among them, Deep Tianma A and Longteng Optoelectronics rose by 11.62% and 7.57%, respectively, while BOE A and CDD fell by 2.26% and 4.80%. In terms of valuation, as of August 14, the total market value of the A-share panel industry is 536.52 billion yuan, with an overall PB (LF) of 1.62x, which is at the 68.9% percentile over the past five years.

Performance Review: According to Omdia data, the global monthly revenue for large-size LCD panels in June was $6.163 billion, a month-on-month increase of 3.34%, but a year-on-year decline of 11.97%. Among them, BOE and Huike's monthly revenue for large-size LCD panels fell by 14.13% and 16.98% year-on-year, while TCL Huaxing saw a year-on-year increase of 5.99%.

Prices: In July, LCD TV panel prices fell month-on-month, and it is expected that in August, prices for all sizes of LCD TV panels will also decline month-on-month.

Television: In July 2025, the prices of 32, 43, 50, 55, and 65-inch LCD TV panels were $36, $63, $95, $121, and $170 per piece, respectively, with prices for each size of LCD TV panels decreasing month-on-month by 5.3%/1.6%/7.8%/5.5%/3.4%; Omdia expects the prices of 32, 43, 50, 55, and 65-inch LCD TV panels in August to be $34, $62, $92, $118, and $167 per piece, with prices for each size of LCD TV panels decreasing month-on-month by 5.6%/1.6%/3.2%/2.5%/1.8%. According to TrendForce, some brand clients have revised their procurement orders for the third quarter, and the demand for TV panels was weak in July. As the year-end sales peak approaches, subsequent procurement volumes from brand clients are expected to increase Notebook: On July 10, 2025, the prices of 10.1-inch (tablet), 14-inch (laptop), and 23.8-inch (monitor) LCD IT panels are $16.3, $26.2, and $44.8 per unit, respectively, with prices for all sizes of IT panels remaining stable month-on-month; Omdia expects the prices of 10.1-inch, 14-inch, and 23.8-inch LCD IT panels in August to be $16.3, $26.2, and $44.8 per unit, respectively, with prices for all sizes of IT panels remaining stable month-on-month.

Supply & Demand: In June, the global shipment area of large-sized LCD panels decreased by 3.46% year-on-year, with Monitor, Notebook, and Tablet shipment areas increasing year-on-year, while TV shipment areas decreased year-on-year.

On the supply side, it is expected that the global large-sized LCD capacity area will grow by 2.31% in 2024 compared to 2023, with capacity changes in 1Q24, 2Q24, 3Q24, and 4Q24 being +0.72%, +0.35%, +0.25%, and -0.02%, respectively; it is expected that the global large-sized LCD capacity area will grow by 0.21% in 2025 compared to 2024, with capacity changes in 1Q25, 2Q25, 3Q25, and 4Q25 being -0.02%, -0.02%, 0.00%, and +0.16%, respectively.

On the demand side, in June 2025, the global shipment area of large-sized LCD panels decreased by 3.46% year-on-year, with the global shipment area of LCD TV panels decreasing by 6.23% year-on-year, the global shipment area of LCD monitor panels increasing by 1.77% year-on-year, the global shipment area of laptop panels increasing by 14.60% year-on-year, and the global shipment area of tablet panels increasing by 6.36% year-on-year.

Guotai Junan Securities believes that the LCD industry capacity is gradually stabilizing, and with the shutdown of production lines by overseas manufacturers and the sale of production lines by overseas manufacturers, the industry share is expected to further concentrate. On the supply side, with the advantages of concentrated shares, it can better regulate the prices of LCD TV panels, the cyclical attributes of the industry are gradually fading, and the growth attributes are emerging, which is expected to gradually strengthen the profitability stability of LCD panel companies.

Investment Recommendation: The LCD panel industry chain strongly recommends BOE Technology Group Co., Ltd. (000725.SZ) and others.

Guotai Junan Securities is optimistic about domestic panel leaders like BOE Technology Group Co., Ltd. (000725.SZ) seizing the era dividend of consumption upgrade and localization in China, gradually achieving stable improvement in profitability through the scale effect and cost advantages brought by high-generation lines, as well as the industry voice and pricing power brought by leading market share. At the same time, the rise of the LCD industry has enhanced the competitiveness of domestic TV brands and ODMs in going global, recommending companies like Zhaochi Co., Ltd. (002429.SZ), Kangguang Technology (001308.SZ), and Shiyuan Co., Ltd. (002841.SZ).

Risk Warning

The risk of demand for display devices being lower than expected; the risk of price fluctuations in display devices; the risk of production equipment and raw material supply