<div id="readability-page-1"><p><strong>Nvidia</strong> <span>(NVDA<span> 1.10%</span>)</span> is slated to report its results for the second quarter of fiscal 2026 (ended July 27) on Wednesday, Aug. 27, after the market close.</p> <p>As in recent quarters, the artificial intelligence (AI) technology giant's upcoming report is arguably the most anticipated of this quarterly earnings season. Nvidia is considered a bellwether, or indicator, for the AI space, and also to some degree for the entire market. This is because not only is the company the largest AI company by market cap, it's also the largest stock on the <strong>S&amp;P 500</strong> index.</p> <p>Nvidia's Q2 results will not include any H20 chip sales to China, as the U.S. government's export controls on these made-for-China data center AI chips spanned the entire quarter.</p> <div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzA3MjIvbnZkYS1zdG9jay1udmRhLWVhcm5pbmdzLXEyLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" width="700" height="476" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzA3MjIvbnZkYS1zdG9jay1udmRhLWVhcm5pbmdzLXEyLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA"/></p><p>Image source: Getty Images.</p> </div> <h2>Nvidia's Q2 guidance and Wall Street's estimates </h2> <div><table> <tbody> <tr> <th scope="col">Metric</th> <th scope="col">Q2 Fiscal 2025 Result</th> <th scope="col">Nvidia's Q2 Fiscal 2026 Guidance</th> <th>Nvidia's Projected Growth</th> <th scope="col">Wall Street's Q2 Fiscal 2026 Consensus Estimate</th> <th scope="col">Wall Street's Projected Growth</th> </tr> <tr> <td>Revenue</td> <td>$30.0 billion</td> <td>$45.0 billion</td> <td>50%</td> <td>$46.0 billion</td> <td>53%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Adjusted earnings per share (EPS)</td> <td>$0.68</td> <td>$0.98*</td> <td>44%</td> <td>$1.01</td> <td>48%</td> </tr> </tbody> </table></div> <p>Data sources: Nvidia and Yahoo! Finance. Fiscal Q2 2026 ended July 27, 2025. *Calculation by the author based on the metrics for which management provided guidance.</p> <h2>Nvidia's strong earnings beat track record</h2> <p>Nvidia has a great track record of exceeding Wall Street's consensus earnings estimates, so the chances seem high that it will do so on Aug. 27.</p> <p>Following is data for the past 20 quarters, or five years. I also broke out the results of the last four quarters to show the earnings beats have been a little smaller recently.</p> <div><table> <tbody> <tr> <th scope="col">Period</th> <th scope="col">Earnings* Results Relative to Wall Street's Consensus Estimate</th> <th scope="col">Magnitude of Earnings Beat (Average)</th> <th>Magnitude of Earnings Beat (Range)</th> </tr> <tr> <td>Last 20 reported quarters</td> <td>18/20 beats = 90%</td> <td> <p>11%**</p> </td> <td> <p>5% to 32%**</p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td> <p>Most recently reported four quarters</p> </td> <td>4/4 beats = 100%</td> <td>6.9%</td> <td>5.3% to 8.5%</td> </tr> </tbody> </table></div> <p>Data source: Nvidia. Calculations by author. *Earnings in the form of adjusted earnings per share (EPS). **Rounded to nearest whole number.</p>  <h2>Nvidia's post-earnings-release stock price movements</h2> <p>Long-term investors should focus on Nvidia's report -- its results, guidance, and management commentary on the earnings call -- and not be overly concerned with the stock price movement after the release.</p> <p>Nvidia's stock price will continue to rise over the long term as long as the company continues to perform well. Short-term movements in the stock can occur for many reasons unrelated to Nvidia's underlying business performance, including recessions, trade policy and tariffs, geopolitical tensions, and other macroeconomic events.</p> <p>That said, here's how Nvidia stock performed the day after the last nine earnings releases.</p> <div><table> <tbody> <tr> <th scope="col">Quarter</th> <th scope="col">Period Ending</th> <th scope="col">Magnitude of Earnings Beat/(Miss)*</th> <th scope="col">Stock Price Change Day After Earnings Release</th> </tr> <tr> <td>Q1 fiscal 2026</td> <td>Late April 2025</td> <td>8%</td> <td>3.3%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Q4 fiscal 2025</td> <td>Late January 2025</td> <td>5%</td> <td>(8.5%)</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Q3 fiscal 2025</td> <td>Late October 2024</td> <td>9%</td> <td>0.5%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Q2 fiscal 2024</td> <td>Late July 2024</td> <td>6%</td> <td>(6.4%)</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Q1 fiscal 2025</td> <td>Late April 2024</td> <td>10%</td> <td>9.3%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Q4 fiscal 2024</td> <td>Late January 2024</td> <td>12%</td> <td>16.4%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Q3 fiscal 2024</td> <td>Late October 2023</td> <td>19%</td> <td> <p>(2.5%)</p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td>Q2 fiscal 2024</td> <td>Late July 2023</td> <td>32%</td> <td> <p>0.1%</p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td>Q1 fiscal 2024</td> <td>Late April 2023</td> <td>18%</td> <td> <p>24.4%</p> </td> </tr> </tbody> </table></div> <p>Data sources: Nvidia's earnings reports, Yahoo! Finance, and YCharts. *Rounded to nearest whole number.</p> <p>I chose nine quarters for a reason: These are the quarters the company has reported since generative AI burst onto the scene in late 2022, when OpenAI released its ChatGPT chatbot. This new technology lit a fire under the demand for Nvidia's AI-enabling data center products, which had already been selling well.</p> <h2>Why Nvidia stock doesn't always rise after an earnings beat</h2> <p>Nvidia's beating Wall Street's earnings estimate is no guarantee that its stock will rise, as the chart above shows. There are several reasons for this, including that guidance (relative to Wall Street's expectations) can affect the stock price as much as, if not more than, the current quarter's results, and overall market dynamics can influence the stock's movement.</p> <h2>Wall Street's expectation for fiscal Q3 guidance</h2> <p>As to guidance, Wall Street is currently modeling for third-quarter revenue of $52.5 billion, or 50% year-over-year growth, and adjusted EPS of $1.19, or 47% year-over-year growth. </p> <p>Guidance should be particularly interesting as it should include H20 sales, as Nvidia was given the green light by the government to resume sales of these chips. Earlier this month, the U.S. Commerce Department reportedly began issuing export licenses for Nvidia's H20 chip. In exchange for the licenses, Nvidia must pay 15% of H20 revenue to the government. (Chipmaker <strong>Advanced Micro Devices</strong>, or AMD, struck a similar deal with the government.)</p> <p>That said, it's possible that expected H20 sales included in Q3 guidance won't be as strong as in the past or that investors are expecting. On Friday, <em>The Information</em> reported that &#34;Nvidia has told some of its component suppliers to suspend production work related to the H20.&#34; This move is reportedly due to the Chinese government's recent directive to the nation's companies to not buy the chip because of security concerns. </p> <h2>Prediction: An earnings beat and a stock movement dependent upon the H20 chip news</h2> <p>Given Nvidia's track record, I'm predicting it will beat Wall Street's earnings estimate.</p> <p>That said, I think the stock's movement will largely depend on H20 news and related Q3 guidance. If the news reported on Friday about the company halting production of the H20 is accurate and if we learn from management that no progress has been made in getting China to discontinue its directive, then Nvidia stock could decline -- or, at best, be little changed. Good news on this front, however, would likely see the stock gaining.</p> <p>Regardless of what happens, one quarter is just one quarter. Keep the big picture in mind: Nvidia stock is a multiyear winner, in my view, because the company's AI infrastructure technology is largely enabling the global AI revolution.</p>                                                                            </div>

Nvidia will release its first quarter report for fiscal year 2026 ending April 27, 2025. 

According to analysts surveyed by FactSet, Nvidia's first-quarter revenue is expected to increase 66% year-on-year to $43.3 billion; adjusted earnings per share will increase 44% year-on-year to $0.88. The growth rate of revenue and profits has slowed significantly compared with the same period last year. In the same period last year, Nvidia's revenue increased by 262% year-on-year, and its adjusted earnings per share increased by 461% year-on-year.

<p>Nvidia will release its first quarter report for fiscal year 2026 ending April 27, 2025. <br><br>According to analysts surveyed by FactSet, Nvidia's first-quarter revenue is expected to increase 66% year-on-year to $43.3 billion; adjusted earnings per share will increase 44% year-on-year to $0.88. The growth rate of revenue and profits has slowed significantly compared with the same period last year. In the same period last year, Nvidia's revenue increased by 262% year-on-year, and its adjusted earnings per share increased by 461% year-on-year.</p>

NVIDIA Financial Results for Q4 Fiscal 2025

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<p>Nvidia is set to report its Q2 fiscal 2026 earnings on August 27, with expectations of strong performance, including projected revenue of $45 billion and adjusted EPS of $0.98. Historically, Nvidia has a high success rate in beating earnings estimates, but stock price movements post-earnings can be unpredictable due to various external factors. Wall Street anticipates Q3 revenue of $52.5 billion, which will include resumed sales of H20 chips to China. Investors are advised to focus on long-term performance rather than short-term stock fluctuations.</p>

- Nvidia is set to report its Q2 fiscal 2026 results on August 27, with expectations of strong revenue growth despite U.S. export controls on H20 chip sales to China.  
- The company has a history of exceeding Wall Street's earnings estimates, but stock price movements post-earnings can be influenced by guidance and broader market dynamics.  
- Future stock performance may hinge on news regarding H20 chip production and sales, with potential impacts from geopolitical factors affecting investor sentiment.

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Nvidia's Earnings on Aug. 27: What History Tells Us About Nvidia Stock's Post-Earnings-Release Moves