"Forecast" Brokers expect Meituan's adjusted net profit to drop 39% in the second quarter due to the impact of the "takeout war" (Update)
Meituan-W (03690.HK) will announce its second-quarter results for this year tomorrow (27th). The mainland e-commerce platform previously engaged in a "takeout war," with competitor JD (09618.HK) offering over 10 billion RMB in subsidies for takeout after April, while Meituan responded to the competition with "Shen Qiang Shou," "Pin Hao Fan," and large consumer vouchers. Citigroup estimates that Meituan's profit per order for takeout delivery in the second quarter will drop 60% year-on-year to 0.74 RMB, while Goldman Sachs indicated that a large mainland e-commerce platform recorded a year-on-year decline in net profit in the second quarter of this year compared to the second quarter of 2022. According to a comprehensive analysis of 8 brokerages, Meituan's adjusted net profit for the second quarter is expected to be between 7.229 billion and 10.062 billion RMB, a year-on-year decline of 26% to 46.9% compared to 13.606 billion RMB in the same period last year, with a median of 8.312 billion RMB, down 38.9% year-on-year.
Based on predictions from 10 brokerages, Meituan's revenue for the second quarter is expected to be between 92.067 billion and 94.534 billion RMB, an increase of 11.9% to 14.9% year-on-year compared to 82.251 billion RMB in the same period last year, with a median of 93.269 billion RMB, up 13.4% year-on-year.
In early August, Meituan, Taobao Flash Sale, and JD Takeout all issued statements emphasizing the promotion of healthy industry development and opposing vicious competition. Investors are focused on Meituan's management's views on the growth of takeout and instant retail revenue, the competitive landscape, in-store business revenue and profit margin trends, as well as competition in hotel and travel bookings, and the recent guidance for overseas business in cities like Saudi Arabia and plans to enter other Gulf countries and Brazil, along with capital returns and overseas investment cycles.
【Intense Takeout Competition Focused on Gross Margin】
Citigroup released a report earlier this month, estimating Meituan's adjusted net profit for the second quarter to be 8.358 billion RMB, a year-on-year decline of 38.6%, with revenue of 93.3 billion RMB, up 13.4% year-on-year. It estimates that core local business revenue will be 67.119 billion RMB, an increase of 10.6% year-on-year, with takeout delivery revenue at 41.187 billion RMB, up 3.8% year-on-year. The total transaction volume (GMV) is expected to reach 289 billion RMB, an increase of 4.7% year-on-year, with an average daily transaction volume of 65.9 million orders, up 12% year-on-year, totaling 5.99 billion orders for the quarter. The average order value (AOV) is expected to decline 7% year-on-year to 46.9 RMB (down 6.9% quarter-on-quarter), indicating a monetization rate of 14.7%. The bank expects the operating profit margin for takeout delivery to be 10.8%, with profit per order at 0.74 RMB (down 60% year-on-year) (compared to 1.46 RMB in the first quarter, a quarter-on-quarter decline of over 49%). It estimates that the operating profit for takeout delivery will be 4.46 billion RMB, down 55.1% year-on-year, with an operating profit margin of 10.8%. The bank expects Meituan's new business revenue in the second quarter to be 26.181 billion RMB, up 21.4% year-on-year, with an operating loss of 4.46 billion RMB and an operating profit margin of negative 9.7% Citigroup expects Meituan's profit per order for its delivery business in the third quarter of this year to further drop to RMB 0.72, with an average daily transaction volume of 69.24 million orders (up 13% year-on-year and up 15.5% quarter-on-quarter), estimating it will rebound to RMB 0.86 in the fourth quarter.
Goldman Sachs estimates that Meituan's EBIT per order for its delivery business will be RMB 0.71 and RMB 0.22 in the second and third quarters of this year, respectively, estimating that Meituan's average daily transaction volume for delivery and instant retail in June will be 78 million orders (Alibaba's June was 34 million orders, JD's June was 16 million orders), and estimating Meituan's average daily transaction volume for delivery and instant retail in September will be 95 million orders (Alibaba's September was 70 million orders, JD's September was 20 million orders). Goldman Sachs estimates that after experiencing competition, the mainland delivery industry will see Meituan's average daily orders reach 80 million (Alibaba 50 million, JD delivery 15 million), estimating Meituan's market share in the mainland at 55% (Alibaba 34%, JD delivery 11%), and estimating Meituan's delivery business and order EBIT at RMB 1.1 (Alibaba RMB 0.5, JD delivery RMB 0.2).
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According to a comprehensive forecast from 8 brokerages, Meituan's adjusted net profit under non-GAAP for the second quarter of this year is estimated to be between RMB 7.229 billion and RMB 10.062 billion, down 26% to 46.9% from RMB 13.606 billion in the same period last year, with a median of RMB 8.312 billion, down 38.9% year-on-year.
Brokerage│2025 Q2 Non-GAAP Adjusted Net Profit Forecast (RMB)│Year-on-Year Change
Nomura│RMB 10.062 billion│-26%
Huaxing Capital│RMB 9.393 billion│-31%
UBS│RMB 8.671 billion│-36.2%
Citigroup│RMB 8.358 billion│-38.6%
CMB International│RMB 8.266 billion│-39.2%
Citi│RMB 7.843 billion│-42.4%
CICC│RMB 7.685 billion│-43.5%
Goldman Sachs│RMB 7.229 billion│-46.9%
Based on Meituan's adjusted net profit of RMB 13.606 billion for the second quarter of 2024 under non-GAAP
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According to a comprehensive forecast from 10 brokerages, Meituan's revenue for the second quarter of this year is estimated to be between RMB 92.067 billion and RMB 94.534 billion, up 11.9% to 14.9% from RMB 82.251 billion in the same period last year, with a median of RMB 93.269 billion, up 13.4% year-on-year Brokerage │ Q2 2025 Revenue Forecast (RMB) │ Year-on-Year Change
JP Morgan │ 94.534 billion yuan │ +14.9%
Nomura │ 93.949 billion yuan │ +14.2%
UBS │ 93.829 billion yuan │ +14.1%
Goldman Sachs │ 93.402 billion yuan │ +13.6%
Citigroup │ 93 billion yuan │ +13.4%
Huaxing Capital │ 93.237 billion yuan │ +13.4%
CICC │ 92.911 billion yuan │ +13%
China International Capital Corporation │ 92.877 billion yuan │ +12.9%
Huatai Securities │ 92.849 billion yuan │ +12.9%
Citi │ 92.067 billion yuan │ +11.9%
Based on Meituan's Q2 2024 revenue of 82.251 billion yuan
