GTHT: Inflation "slowly heats up" provides the Federal Reserve with room for a rate cut in September, but whether it can initiate a series of rate cuts remains highly uncertain

Guotai Haitong Securities released a research report indicating that the "slow heat" of U.S. inflation in the short term provides the Federal Reserve with room for a rate cut in September, but there remains a high level of uncertainty about whether consecutive rate cuts can be achieved in the future. In the first half of the year, the actual enforcement of U.S. tariffs was less than expected, and the pace of price increases by enterprises was relatively slow, leading to a moderate rebound in inflation. In the second half of the year, with the implementation of new tariffs, enterprise price increases may accelerate, but consumers' sensitivity to prices has increased, and enterprises will still need to bear some of the tariff costs