CITIC International raised NIO's target price to 55 yuan, expecting continued net losses in 2026

CMB International Research Report pointed out that it recognizes NIO's (09866.HK)(NIO.US) cost-cutting efforts, which have been partially reflected in the second quarter financial report this year. However, the bank noted that even assuming sales volume reaches 500,000 vehicles in the fiscal year 2026, it still expects to continue recording losses.

Considering its aggressive pricing strategy, CMB International is skeptical about Onvo L90 achieving a 20% gross margin target; it has raised NIO's sales forecast for the fiscal year 2025 to 345,000 vehicles, with an expected 158,000 vehicles in the fourth quarter of 2025, and predicts a gross margin of 15.7% for vehicles in the fourth quarter. Therefore, CMB International expects a GAAP net loss of RMB 1.6 billion for the fourth quarter of 2025, and a non-GAAP net loss of RMB 1 billion.

CMB International believes that sales projections for NIO in the fiscal year 2026 cannot be linearly extrapolated based on the fourth quarter of 2025 data, as other automakers may launch new models with more competitive pricing; even if NIO's sales in the fiscal year 2026 reach 500,000 vehicles, the company is still expected to record a GAAP net loss of RMB 7.8 billion. CMB International believes that NIO's three-brand strategy, increased investments in NIO House, battery swapping, chips, and even mobile phones will require a higher sales threshold to achieve breakeven.

The bank maintains a "Hold" rating on NIO but raises the target price for U.S. stocks from $4 to $7, and the target price for Hong Kong stocks from HKD 31 to HKD 55, based on an estimated price-to-sales ratio of 0.9 times for 2026 (previously estimated at 0.8 times for 2025)