Goldman Sachs raises Q4 iron ore outlook to $95, but the upward trend is hard to sustain as demand "fog" remains unresolved

According to the Zhitong Finance APP, recently, Goldman Sachs raised its iron ore price forecast. Despite ongoing doubts in the market regarding actual demand, iron ore futures prices have achieved two consecutive days of increases. However, Goldman Sachs also predicts that by the end of 2026, iron ore prices will fall back to $80 per ton. The short-term price increase does not indicate long-term strength; this rise is more driven by price expectations and short-term sentiment. Currently, iron ore prices are in a short-term upward trend: the most active iron ore futures contract price on the Dalian Commodity Exchange reached 777.5 yuan per ton (approximately $108.70), and the Singapore iron ore benchmark price also slightly climbed to $103.1 per ton. Goldman Sachs raised its fourth-quarter iron ore price target from $90 per ton to $95 per ton, temporarily boosting investor sentiment. However, Goldman Sachs also predicts that by the end of 2026, iron ore prices will fall back to $80 per ton. Industry experts remain cautious, believing that although the futures market is active, the actual demand from steel producers has not truly rebounded. Recently, due to temporary environmental production restrictions in the Tangshan region of China, steel production has declined, which has also suppressed the real consumption demand for iron ore. However, the production restrictions will end after September 4, and iron ore demand is expected to gain new growth momentum. What does this mean? For the market: Price increases do not indicate long-term strength. The recent short-term rise in iron ore prices is more driven by price expectations and short-term market sentiment rather than substantial growth in steel demand. Unless steel production can quickly rebound, the current price increase may rapidly lose momentum. Although some steel product prices on the Shanghai Futures Exchange have seen slight increases, the overall upward momentum is weak, and prices of related commodities such as coking coal have already declined. If demand does not rebound, investors may begin to withdraw from the market, putting pressure on iron ore prices. From a more macro perspective: Policy trends continue to influence the global outlook. China's steel industry is a key barometer for global commodity demand, and this temporary production restriction policy highlights the significant impact of government intervention on the market. Currently, several mainstream banks still predict that iron ore prices will ultimately return to low levels, indicating that the market fundamentals may once again become the core factor driving price trends. In the future, the trajectory of iron ore prices will depend on three key factors: the pace of China's economic recovery, changes in global construction demand, and new trends in spending in the energy and infrastructure sectors