Founder Securities: The liquor industry is bottoming out and deepening, with the advantages of leading enterprises becoming prominent

According to the Zhitong Finance APP, Founder Securities released a research report stating that from the current outlook, a bottom has formed under multiple policy catalysts. Although the liquor sector has shown some signs of recovery, it remains at historically low levels. With the overall economic outlook improving, liquor, as a high-quality pro-cyclical asset, still has room for valuation recovery. Attention should be paid to the improvement in terminal demand during the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day, and in the medium to long term, tracking the pace of policy improvements translating into demand recovery. The firm believes that the industry is showing squeezed growth, and the differentiation is expected to further intensify. The liquor sector prioritizes operational stability, highlighting its dividend asset attributes, and attention should be paid to the resilience of medium to long-term development at the valuation and sentiment bottom.

Founder Securities' main viewpoints are as follows:

From the perspective of sector revenue performance, under the dual pressure of the macro environment and policies, the industry entered a deep adjustment in Q2 2025. From the sector revenue performance, Q2 2025 continued the trend of deceleration from Q1. According to the CS liquor sector data, the entire sector achieved a comprehensive revenue of 239.8 billion yuan in H1 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 0.9%, and achieved a net profit attributable to the parent of 94.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.2%. Excluding Moutai, the remaining listed companies achieved a comprehensive revenue of 150.4 billion yuan in H1, a year-on-year decrease of 6.1%, and achieved a net profit attributable to the parent of 49.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 8.9%. Overall, mainstream product prices have slightly declined. However, with the continuous improvement in industry prosperity, market marginal expectations have strengthened, coupled with the relaxation of constraints in H2, the industry is expected to warm up, and performance is likely to stabilize and rebound. The upcoming sales window during the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day will be an important observation period for turning points.

The accelerated clearing of financial statements is grinding the sector's fundamentals, and the internal differentiation of brands is intensifying. There is an expectation for positive economic recovery after the implementation of subsequent policies, and attention should be paid to the improvement of demand in 2025 after risk release. The firm believes that the liquor sector has experienced a deceleration since Q2, impacted by the macro environment and weak terminal demand, putting short-term performance pressure on liquor companies, with fundamentals in a grinding bottom phase and increasing brand differentiation.

From the overall performance by price, high-end liquor > sub-high-end liquor > regional liquor companies (sub-high-end liquor has undergone a longer adjustment period, with leading real estate companies actively maintaining core markets and product bases). High-end liquor continues to maintain relative resilience through strong brand power and channel control. Leaders like Moutai stabilize the high-end market base through inventory control and channel optimization, showing significant risk resistance. The sub-high-end liquor scene is more directly affected by policies, and due to the longer adjustment period, it is further accelerating the bottoming process. Fenjiu continues to show growth momentum and remains resilient during pressure periods. Regional leading liquor companies focus on maintaining stable market share in their home provinces, actively controlling speed to maintain core market channel order and stabilize core product prices; Yanghe and Jinshiyuan have seen significant adjustments, with Yingjia starting to regulate earlier since Q3 2024, and the market response has been sensitive. Other regional liquors show differentiation, with JINHUI steadily establishing a strong presence in Gansu Province and operating capabilities in the Northwest market, with highlights in product structure and regional markets; Laobai Gan maintains stable operations in its main market, with cost-effectiveness improving and accelerating performance release.

Suggestions for attention: 1) During the macroeconomic transition period, leading liquors with strong brand power such as Moutai, WLY, LZLJ, and Shanxi Fenjiu; 2) Regional leaders focusing on their home markets and maintaining the foundation of core products are expected to continue their momentum under demand recovery, such as Gujinggongjiu, Yingjia Gongjiu, Jinshiyuan, and JINHUI 3) In this round of adjustment, proactive relief measures were taken, with Shede Liquor and Yanghe being the first to clear on the financial statements; 4) The innovative development of products and sales channels includes Zhenjiu Lidu and Jiugui Liquor.

Risk Warning: Macroeconomic recovery is less than expected, consumer recovery is less than expected, food safety risks, and worsening industry competition, etc