Zhongyuan Commercial Properties: The market is in a strong wait-and-see atmosphere, with the number of transactions for commercial properties in Hong Kong in August hitting a new low for the year

According to the Zhitong Finance APP, the new "Policy Address" will be announced within the month, and the market anticipates that the Hong Kong government will propose new measures to further assist in addressing the shortage of accommodation for foreign students. Many investors are optimistic about the development potential of student dormitories and have entered the market in advance, resulting in multiple transactions of entire properties such as hotels and commercial-residential buildings. However, the overall trading performance of Hong Kong's commercial properties has declined due to the impact of the U.S. interest rate cuts, reaching a new monthly low for the year. According to data from Centaline (Commercial Properties), the Hong Kong commercial property market recorded approximately 248 transactions in August 2025, a month-on-month decrease of about 30%, marking a low for the year; the transaction amount was approximately HKD 3.36 billion, down about 47.51% month-on-month and about 44.72% year-on-year. Centaline (Commercial Properties) expects that the Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision in mid-month, and if the U.S. implements interest rate cuts, coupled with favorable news from the Policy Address boosting the property market, it is believed that buyer confidence will strengthen, driving a rebound in the trading performance of Hong Kong's commercial properties in September. Pan Zhiming, Managing Director of Centaline (Commercial Properties), stated that the number of transactions in Hong Kong's commercial property market in August was approximately 248, reaching a new monthly low for the year, with a month-on-month decrease of about 33.33%, while there was an increase of about 13.76% year-on-year; the transaction amount was approximately HKD 3.36 billion, down about 47.51% month-on-month and about 44.72% year-on-year. Among the three major categories of commercial properties, the retail market's trading performance remained stable, recording about 60 transactions in August, unchanged from the previous month, and an increase of about 33.33% year-on-year; the transaction amount was approximately HKD 1.877 billion, with month-on-month and year-on-year increases of about 75.45% and about 116%, respectively. The investment atmosphere for student dormitories was hot in August, with investors optimistic about the prospects and entering the market, resulting in multiple transactions of entire properties. In addition, the office market's performance has turned quiet, with about 60 transactions recorded in August, a month-on-month decline of about 17.81%, but still about 1.3 times higher than the same period last year; the transaction amount was approximately HKD 878 million, down about 76.81% month-on-month and about 74.91% year-on-year. The commercial market also faced pressure, with approximately 128 transactions recorded in August, a decrease of about 46.44% from the previous month, but still a decline of about 12.93% compared to the same period last year; the transaction amount was approximately HKD 603 million, down about 60.85% month-on-month and about 64.65% year-on-year. Pan Zhiming analyzed that the market generally expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 0.25% in September and December, totaling a 0.5% cut for the entire year of 2025, and Hong Kong banks are also likely to follow suit. Affected by the expectations of U.S. interest rate cuts, some buyers have slowed down their market entry pace, leading to a more cautious market atmosphere, resulting in a decline in both the number of transactions and transaction amounts in August compared to the previous month. As the next year's "Policy Address" will be announced within the month, investors are hopeful that the Hong Kong government will introduce new measures to boost the property market, with some already seeking desirable properties in the market, waiting for the right time to enter. Pan Zhiming believes that once the interest rate decision is announced, if the U.S. implements interest rate cuts, a group of potential buyers will quickly enter the market, and with the favorable atmosphere from the Policy Address, it is expected that the trading performance of Hong Kong's commercial properties will return to an upward trajectory in September