Zhongtai Securities: Core city home purchase policies continue to optimize, optimistic about medium to long-term allocation opportunities in the real estate sector

According to the Zhitong Finance APP, Zhongtai Securities released a research report stating that CRIC published the TOP 100 real estate companies sales ranking for August 2025, showing that the total sales amount of the top 100 real estate companies in a single month decreased by 19.2% year-on-year. Although the sales data for the real estate industry from January to August 2025 remains low, there are expectations for signs of marginal recovery following policy relaxation. Overall, the policy tone of "stopping the decline and stabilizing" continues, with ongoing optimization of home purchase policies in core cities, leading to a slight recovery in market confidence. It is expected that with the continued implementation of policies to stabilize sales and funds, the industry is likely to see a stabilization at the bottom. It is recommended to pay attention to Binjiang Group (002244.SZ), Chengtou Holding (600649.SH), Huafa Group (600325.SH), Greentown China (03900), and Yuexiu Property (00123), among others.

Zhongtai Securities' main viewpoints are as follows:

Industry: Sales decline month-on-month, policies remain relaxed

In August, the top 100 real estate companies achieved a cumulative sales amount of 220.2 billion yuan, down 19.2% year-on-year and down 2.8% month-on-month, indicating a decline in sales data. In August, various regions continued to relax home purchase thresholds, with frequent "de-stocking" policies being introduced. Overall, following the Central Political Bureau meeting's guidance on the new real estate situation, various real estate policies have continued to relax. It is expected that with the ongoing introduction of relevant policies, the fundamentals of the sales side are likely to improve.

Real Estate Companies: Some companies show year-on-year growth in a single month, with slightly stronger performance from companies ranked 6-15

The number of real estate companies achieving sales exceeding 10 billion yuan in a single month is 4, a decrease of 1 compared to the same period last year. China Merchants Shekou achieved a total sales amount of 19.5 billion yuan in a single month, while China Overseas Land & Investment and Poly Developments achieved sales amounts of 18.4 billion yuan and 18.0 billion yuan, respectively, ranking in the top three of the industry. In terms of sales growth rate, companies ranked 6-15 in August performed better than the other tiers, while companies ranked 1-5, 16-30, and 31-100 all showed a downward trend; among the top 30 companies, 11 companies experienced positive sales growth, with Pukai Group and Bangtai Group showing year-on-year growth rates of 2120.0% and 195.2%, respectively.

Investment Recommendations

Although the sales data for the real estate industry from January to August 2025 remains low, there are expectations for signs of marginal recovery following policy relaxation. Overall, the policy tone of "stopping the decline and stabilizing" continues, with ongoing optimization of home purchase policies in core cities, leading to a slight recovery in market confidence. It is expected that with the continued implementation of policies to stabilize sales and funds, the industry is likely to see a stabilization at the bottom. We continue to be optimistic about the medium- to long-term allocation opportunities in the real estate sector and recommend focusing on real estate companies with solid fundamentals and high safety margins in first- and second-tier cities, including Binjiang Group, Chengtou Holding, China Merchants Shekou, Huafa Group, and Poly Developments; in the Hong Kong stock market, attention can be paid to leading companies with valuation advantages and resilience, such as Greentown China, Yuexiu Property, and China Resources Land.

Risk Warning

Sales may be below expectations, the relaxation of real estate policies may be less than anticipated, and there may be risks related to the timeliness or updates of the public information used in the research report