Citigroup CEO: The likelihood of a U.S. economic recession is low, and M&A deals are expected to increase further

The CEO of Citigroup stated that as U.S. companies regain confidence from clearer policy signals, merger and acquisition activity is rebounding, and the likelihood of a recession in the world's largest economy is low.

Jane Fraser pointed out in an interview with Bloomberg Television that with the uncertainty surrounding taxes, tariffs, and deregulation policies having decreased, "clients' activity in the capital markets, investments, and trading has significantly increased." She stated, "Our client base is indeed starting to take action with more confidence."

Since June, the total value of announced deals by global companies has exceeded $1 trillion, breaking the usual trend of a slowdown in deal activity during the summer months. Goldman Sachs believes that the momentum for mergers and acquisitions will further strengthen, predicting that the global deal value will be around $3.1 trillion this year, with a potential record of $3.9 trillion by 2026.

However, Fraser also cautioned that Citigroup is closely monitoring labor market dynamics and noted that "not all situations are positive"—although she still maintains that the U.S. economy is likely to avoid a recession.

Some peers are taking a more cautious stance. UBS CEO Sergio Ermotti stated on Thursday that the impact of global tariffs on the U.S. economy and inflation "remains unclear," complicating predictions about Federal Reserve policy.

Although the market generally expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates at the meeting on September 16-17, investors' expectations for the pace of policy adjustments have begun to diverge. Earlier this week, Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon stated that the Federal Reserve "does not need" to cut rates quickly