Schroders Investment: The risk of an economic downturn in the United States is rising, but a "soft landing" remains the main theme; the outlook for the bond market is diverging

Schroders pointed out that despite the downward risks facing the U.S. economy, a "soft landing" remains the main narrative. The July employment data was weaker than expected, leading to a significant shift in the market's assessment of economic health, with the probability of a "no landing" scenario dropping to 10%, while the probability of a "hard landing" rose to 20%. Schroders believes that while economic growth is not strong, there is still a possibility of stability, and market uncertainty is diminishing, alleviating concerns about a recession. The Federal Reserve may cut interest rates faster than expected, while the economic environment in Europe continues to improve