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Last Friday (September 12), the preliminary value of the University of Michigan's Consumer Confidence Index for September fell to 55.4, a four-month low, down from 58.2 in August, reflecting increasing concerns about the job market. Meanwhile, inflation expectations remain generally controllable, with the inflation expectation for the next year maintained at 4.8%, and the market fully pricing in a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve this week. However, the soft labor market has heightened investor concerns about the economy, coupled with the U.S. calling on the G7 to impose &#34;meaningful tariffs&#34; on goods from China and India; the European Parliament's push for &#34;sunset clauses&#34; has reignited trade tensions, prompting investors to be wary of a potential cooling of market risk sentiment.
The three major U.S. stock indices were mixed, with the Dow Jones down 0.59%; the S&amp;P 500 down 0.05%; the Nasdaq up 0.44%; the China Golden Dragon Index slightly down 0.11%. According to Bank of America citing EPFR Global data, for the week ending September 10, global equity funds saw outflows of $9.9 billion, with U.S. equity fund redemptions amounting to $19 billion. In terms of popular stocks, Tesla rose 7.4%, Oracle fell over 5%, and Apple rose 1.76%. The cryptocurrency trading platform Gemini Space Station saw a 14.29% increase on its first day of trading.
The yield on the U.S. 10-year benchmark Treasury bond rose 4 basis points to 4.06%. Gold rose 0.26%, closing at $3,643; WTI crude oil rose 0.58% to $62.6. The euro/dollar held steady at 1.1700, while the dollar/yen rose 0.3%, facing resistance at 148.0; Bitcoin remained consolidated below $117,000, while Ethereum returned above $4,600.
Macro News
U.S. September University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Preliminary Value Falls to 55.4, Below Expectations
According to preliminary estimates from the University of Michigan, the U.S. Consumer Confidence Index for September fell to 55.4, down from 58 in August and below the market expectation of 58, marking a decline for the second consecutive month and pushing confidence to its lowest level since May, with the most significant declines seen among low- and middle-income households.
Conditions for purchasing durable goods have improved, but other components have weakened due to heightened concerns about the business environment, employment, and inflation. Personal financial outlooks dropped by 8%, while about 60% of respondents still view tariffs as a key issue. The current conditions index fell from 61.7 to 61.2, while the expectations index dropped from 55.9 to 51.8. Meanwhile, inflation expectations for the next year remained stable at 4.8%, while the five-year expectation rose for the second consecutive month, from 3.5% to 3.9%.
Trade Tensions Resurface, U.S. Calls on G7 and EU to Impose Tariffs on Chinese and Indian Goods
The U.S. Treasury has called on the Group of Seven (G7) and European Union allies to impose &#34;meaningful tariffs&#34; on goods from China and India to prevent the two countries from continuing to purchase Russian oil, and has convened an emergency G7 finance ministers' meeting to discuss actions to increase pressure on Moscow to end its war in Ukraine
Trump stated that his patience with Putin is running out, saying he will have to be very, very strong, with sanctions on banks and oil, as well as tariffs being options, but European countries also need to get involved. He pointed out that India is one of the largest importers of Russian oil, and the country faces a 50% tariff on goods exported to the U.S.
However, Trump has not yet imposed tariffs on Chinese products due to China's purchase of Russian oil, as his administration is trying to maintain a fragile trade truce with Beijing, which has reduced some retaliatory tariff rates from over 100% to lower levels.
Additionally, the U.S. has listed 23 Chinese companies, and China has initiated an anti-discrimination investigation regarding U.S. integrated circuits. Foreign media cited the latest announcement from the U.S. Federal Register, indicating that the U.S. Department of Commerce has added 32 entities to the entity list, including 23 Chinese companies, such as Jim Semiconductor Technology Co., Ltd. and Jicun Semiconductor Technology Co., Ltd., which were included for assisting SMIC in obtaining U.S. chip manufacturing equipment. The Chinese Ministry of Commerce announced that it has launched an anti-discrimination investigation regarding U.S. measures in the field of integrated circuits.
Morgan Stanley expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates three times this year, while JP Morgan has delayed its forecast for the European Central Bank's rate cut to December.
Morgan Stanley predicts that the Federal Reserve will cut rates at all three remaining meetings this year. The bank had previously expected the Federal Reserve to cut rates once each in September and December, by 25 basis points each time. Following recent data showing a slowdown in the labor market, the market widely expects the Federal Reserve to initiate a new round of easing at next week's policy meeting, marking the first cut since a 25 basis point reduction in December 2024. Morgan Stanley stated that the Federal Reserve may begin a series of four consecutive 25 basis point cuts starting next week, continuing until January next year, and expects two more cuts in April and July next year.
JP Morgan anticipates that the European Central Bank will cut rates in December this year, having originally forecast a cut in October by 25 basis points. JP Morgan stated that the likelihood of the European Central Bank having completed its rate cuts is evident, and the inflation outlook still suggests a tendency towards easing. Other major brokerages, including Goldman Sachs and BNP Paribas, believe that the European Central Bank will remain on hold this year. Data compiled by the London Stock Exchange Group (LSEG) shows that traders are betting on over a 95% chance that the central bank will keep rates unchanged at the October meeting.
The EU-U.S. trade agreement may face changes, as European Parliament members push for a &#34;sunset clause.&#34;
The European Parliament is pushing to amend a controversial EU-U.S. trade agreement reached this summer, which could trigger new friction as the EU attempts to stabilize its tense relationship with Trump. According to informed sources, European Parliament members are advocating for the inclusion of a &#34;sunset clause&#34; in the agreement to limit the duration of tariff reductions on U.S. industrial goods and to adjust tariffs on certain specific products.
Informed sources said that the European Commission conveyed these demands to member states this week. The Commission had previously negotiated the agreement in July. The agreement stipulates that the U.S. imposes a 15% tariff on most EU export goods, while the EU agrees to eliminate tariffs on U.S. industrial goods. Almost all parliamentary groups have criticized this clause as unbalanced. The European Parliament's push for amendments could delay the approval of the agreement and even jeopardize the entire agreement
Goldman Sachs says investors are starting to consider hedging the dollar, while Bank of America warns of extreme bullish sentiment in U.S. stocks.
Robert Kaplan, Vice President of Goldman Sachs Group, stated that investors are beginning to question whether they have invested too much in the U.S., and more financial institutions are looking towards Europe and Asia for growth opportunities. Kaplan mentioned that we are having hedging conversations with people around the world, some of whom have never hedged the dollar in the past 15 years. He pointed out that while investors still view the U.S. as a safe haven for funds, they are experiencing a bit more confusion regarding the U.S. institutional framework.
Michael Hartnett, Chief U.S. Equity Strategist at Bank of America, issued a warning in a publication that the extreme bullish sentiment among investors in U.S. stocks poses hidden risks, and he believes that gold is a quality tool for hedging against inflation, dollar depreciation, and disorderly risks.
CBO lowers U.S. economic growth forecast for this year and raises unemployment rate forecast.
The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) has raised its forecasts for U.S. inflation and unemployment rates while lowering its economic growth forecast. This is primarily due to considerations of President Trump's tax laws, tariffs, and a decrease in net immigration. The economic forecast released by the CBO indicates that the U.S. economy will grow by 1.4% in 2025, down from the January forecast of 1.9%; the inflation rate is expected to rise to 3.1%, nearly 1 percentage point higher than previously forecasted, based on the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation indicator. The report shows that the unemployment rate is expected to reach a higher peak of 4.5% by the end of this year. Private forecasting agencies also predict a slowdown in growth for 2025, with a slight rebound next year.
Market Overview
U.S. Stocks: U.S. stocks rose across the board, with the Dow Jones down 0.59%; the S&amp;P 500 down 0.05%; the Nasdaq up 0.44%.
European Stocks: European stock markets were mixed, with the German DAX 30 index down 0.02%. The French CAC 40 index rose 0.02%. The UK FTSE 100 index fell 0.15%.
Bond Market: The yield on the U.S. 10-year benchmark Treasury bond is approximately 4.06%, up 4 basis points from the previous trading day.
Commodities: Gold rose 0.26%, priced at $3,643 per ounce. WTI crude oil rose 0.58%, priced at $62.6 per barrel.
Foreign Exchange: The U.S. dollar index rose 0.12%, priced at 97.61. The USD/JPY rose 0.3%, while the EUR/USD remained flat. Cryptocurrency: Bitcoin fell 0.15% in the last 24 hours, currently priced at $115,812. Ethereum fell 0.96% in the last 24 hours, currently priced at $4,623.
Hong Kong Stocks: The Hang Seng Index night market futures closed at 26,380 points, down 7 points, compared to the previous day's closing of 26,388 points, with a low of 8 points, and a transaction volume of 11,379 contracts. The National Index night market futures closed at 9,361 points, 4 points lower than the previous day's closing.
Global Company News
NVIDIA and OpenAI are negotiating to support a significant investment in the UK.
NVIDIA and OpenAI are negotiating to support a significant investment in the UK, focusing on enhancing the level of artificial intelligence infrastructure in the country. An informed source revealed that the two tech companies are discussing a large collaboration to support the construction of data centers in the UK, with a potential scale reaching billions of dollars
Insiders say that NVIDIA, cloud computing company Nscale, and OpenAI are still advancing various processes.
NVIDIA is scaling back its cloud computing business.
According to reports, insiders revealed that NVIDIA is reducing its focus on its cloud computing business DGX Cloud, which was positioned as a competitor to Amazon Web Services. According to a person with direct knowledge of the situation, the company currently plans to primarily use the service for its own researchers rather than actively seeking external corporate clients. The service consists of servers powered by its artificial intelligence chips. The company had ambitious goals for its cloud business, believing it could eventually generate $150 billion in revenue.
ExxonMobil: New graphite can enhance electric vehicle battery life and extend range.
ExxonMobil has stated that it has invented a new type of graphite that can increase the lifespan of electric vehicle batteries by up to 30%. The company's CEO Darren W. Woods stated at the University of Texas at Austin Energy Conference that they have invented a new carbon molecule that will extend battery life by 30%. He described this as a revolutionary leap in battery performance. Woods mentioned that this invention is currently being tested by several electric vehicle manufacturers. The synthetic graphite is used in the battery's anode, enabling faster charging speeds, longer lifespan, and greater range.
Tesla rises 6%, chairman says Musk is refocusing on his role.
Chairman Denholm emphasized that founder Musk has completed his political service and is now fully returning to focus on his role at Tesla. On Bloomberg Television, Denholm described Musk as the right leader during a time of transformation, with artificial intelligence at the core of their future strategy. She noted that Musk's role does not necessarily have to be limited to CEO, as Tesla's compensation plan has anticipated flexibility. She stated that the key point is that Tesla shareholders can vote on the company's future, claiming that at this moment, no one else can lead Tesla like Musk. Tesla's stock price rose 6%.
Today's news preview:
Japan's &#34;Respect for the Aged Day&#34; holiday market closure.
New Zealand August BNZ Services PSI.
UK September Rightmove Average Asking Price Index Year-on-Year.
Italy July Trade Balance.
Eurozone July Non-Seasonally Adjusted Trade Balance.
US September New York Fed Manufacturing Index.
Canada July Wholesale Sales Month-on-Month.
Canada July Manufacturing Sales Month-on-Month

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September 15 Financial Breakfast: The preliminary value of the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index for September in the United States fell to 55.4, reflecting increased concerns about the job market. The three major U.S. stock indices had mixed results, with the Nasdaq rising 0.44%. Tesla rose 7.4%, while Oracle fell over 5%. Global equity funds saw an outflow of $9.9 billion, with U.S. equity funds experiencing redemptions of $19 billion. The yield on the U.S. ten-year benchmark government bond rose to 4.06%. Gold and WTI crude oil saw slight increases. Investors need to be wary of trade situation risks

September 15 Financial Breakfast: Trade tensions resurface, Nasdaq hits new high, Tesla surges 7.4%, Ethereum rises nearly 6%!