Why did coffee prices in the United States surge by 20.9%? Drought, tariffs, and supply shortages are the main reasons

According to Zhitong Finance APP, global coffee futures prices are expected to continue rising in 2025, with both Arabica and Robusta coffee likely to reach multi-year highs. The U.S. market is also significantly impacted, with retail coffee prices in grocery stores soaring. According to data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, coffee prices in the U.S. rose 20.9% year-on-year in August, with significant increases in both roasted coffee and instant coffee categories. This round of price increases is primarily driven by multiple factors: ongoing drought in Brazil leading to reduced crop yields, poor growth of coffee in Vietnam exacerbating global supply shortages, and strong market demand coupled with exchange rate fluctuations further driving up costs. Additionally, the weather uncertainties facing Brazil's 2025-26 harvest are expected to have a profound impact on coffee commodity trading. The U.S. imposition of new tariffs on Brazilian coffee has further skyrocketed import costs, with high expenses for supply chain shifts. As the largest coffee supplier to the U.S., Brazil has observed a reduction in new contract signings by U.S. buyers, who are seeking alternative markets, but low-cost procurement options are extremely limited. Industry media "Daily Coffee News" pointed out that since the tariffs on Brazilian coffee imposed during the Trump administration took effect, coffee green bean buyers have either absorbed the costs themselves, passed them on to consumers, or faced difficulties sourcing from other regions such as Colombia, Peru, and Mexico. SJM (SJM.US) clearly stated in its earnings call that to alleviate the pressure from rising green coffee costs, the company has adjusted its procurement strategy, optimized its supply chain, and implemented responsible pricing measures, raising consumer prices twice in May and August. The company emphasized that due to the rise in green coffee costs and the price transmission effect in the coffee category, the demand price elasticity after the price increase in May met expectations, validating the competitiveness of its product mix and the resilience of the home coffee category. Looking ahead, KPMG Chief Economist Diane Swonk warned that as the full impact of the 50% tariff on Brazilian coffee gradually manifests at retail endpoints, coffee prices could easily surpass historical highs. Although coffee-related companies typically hedge against cost fluctuations, the current market volatility and heightened uncertainty may still pose a shock to them. TD Cowen analysis indicated that if tariff policies remain unchanged, adjusted EBITDA for restaurant companies such as Starbucks (SBUX.US), Dutch Bros (BROS.US), and First Watch Restaurant (FWRG.US) will face downward pressure. Other companies that may be affected by coffee pricing pressures include Coffee Holding (JVA.US), Dunkin' Brands, SJM, Starbucks, McDonald's (MCD.US), Costa Coffee, Tim Hortons, Luckin Coffee, Nestlé, Keurig Dr Pepper (KDP.US), Kraft Heinz (KHC.US), and Krispy Kreme (DNUT.US)