Tianfeng Securities: Demand expansion and intelligent upgrading resonate, the unmanned forklift industry welcomes an accelerated penetration period

According to the Zhitong Finance APP, Tianfeng Securities released a research report stating that unmanned forklifts, which integrate traditional forklift and AGV technology, have become core equipment in intelligent logistics. In recent years, with the maturity of the supply chain and the rise of domestic components, the average price of unmanned forklifts has significantly decreased, and there is still room for further decline in the future. The expansion of demand and the resonance of intelligent upgrades have ushered the industry into a period of accelerated penetration. The evolution of unmanned forklift bodies has progressed from traditional forklift modifications to specialized bodies and then to new forms of autonomous design. Overall, global leaders and emerging domestic players are jointly driving the rapid maturation of the industry. The main points of Tianfeng Securities are as follows: Unmanned Forklifts: Technological Evolution Drives Intelligent Handling Transformation Unmanned forklifts integrate traditional forklift and AGV technology, featuring automatic guidance, handling, and stacking functions, and have become core equipment in intelligent logistics. Compared to traditional forklifts, their advantages lie in automatic navigation, obstacle avoidance, and path planning, which reduce labor costs and safety risks, making them more suitable for standardized and repetitive scenarios. The core components of unmanned forklifts include the body, drive device, positioning and navigation device, onboard control system, power supply, and safety devices. In recent years, with the maturity of the supply chain and the rise of domestic components, the average price has significantly decreased, and there is still room for further decline in the future. Application fields cover the entire process scenarios of production line distribution, warehousing in and out, park transportation, and port loading and unloading, gradually becoming a key tool for manufacturing logistics automation. From AGV to AMR: Technological Evolution Drives Logistics Intelligent Upgrade AGV, as an automatic guided handling device, is divided into structured navigation and unstructured navigation. With the development of e-commerce and rising labor costs, the AGV market has gradually become saturated, while AMR, with its high perception, autonomous navigation, and AI empowerment, is accelerating its popularity. AMR features rapid deployment, human-machine collaboration, and a shortened return on investment cycle (from 2 years to less than 1 year), making it more efficient in intelligent warehousing. Core navigation relies on SLAM: laser SLAM uses high-precision point cloud mapping, suitable for industrial and mining scenarios; visual SLAM uses low-cost image recognition, suitable for dynamic and AR/VR applications. Both are gradually moving towards multi-sensor fusion to enhance robustness and accuracy. Demand Expansion and Intelligent Upgrade Resonance: The Industry Welcomes an Acceleration of Penetration The industry is driven by four major factors: ① The gradual weakening of the demographic dividend and rising labor costs promote automation substitution; ② Policy promotion, with "Made in China 2025" and "Industry 4.0" accelerating intelligent upgrades; ③ The new industrial revolution brings demand for intelligent warehousing; ④ Technological advancements improve efficiency and safety. The upstream of the industrial chain consists of components (motors, sensors, etc.), with a high domestic production rate; the midstream involves unmanned forklift manufacturing and integration; the downstream covers warehousing logistics, manufacturing, ports, agriculture, etc. The market scale is rapidly expanding: in 2019, China shipped 2,700 unmanned forklifts (penetration rate 0.44%), increasing to 19,500 units (1.66%) in 2023, and is expected to reach 39,000 units (3.17%) by 2025. In 2023, the market size in China is $2.385 billion, accounting for 45% of the global market, with Asia as a whole accounting for 47%, becoming the core of global growth. Diverse Enterprises Compete to Promote Unmanned Forklift Industry Upgrade The evolution of unmanned forklift bodies has transitioned from traditional forklifts to specialized bodies and then to new forms of autonomous designs. The control system adopts a dual-core architecture of "local controller + cloud scheduling platform." The global robot control system market is expected to reach approximately 80 billion yuan by 2024, with a compound annual growth rate of 84.4% in shipment volume from 2020 to 2024. Among the representative enterprises, Linde (China) focuses on vehicle bodies and intelligent solutions, Hangcha Intelligent is rapidly transforming to form an integrated warehousing and distribution model; international leaders such as Toyota Material Handling and Jungheinrich are leading in the layout of intelligent warehousing equipment. System integration representative GEEKPLUS has become the global market leader in warehousing robots in 2021, with over 1,000 clients (including Nike, Walmart, BMW, etc.) across more than 40 countries; XianGong Intelligent focuses on controllers, with a market share of 23.6% expected by 2024. Overall, global leaders and emerging local players in China are jointly driving the rapid maturation of the industry. Risk Warning: Macroeconomic and policy risks; technology update and iteration risks; market competition and customer risks; supply chain and geopolitical environment risks, etc