Open Source Securities: In August, large pigs continued to be released for sale, and the future pig prices are not pessimistic

According to the Zhitong Finance APP, Kaiyuan Securities released a research report stating that the sample from Yongyi showed that the completion rate of live pig sales in August was 100.04% compared to the plan, and the planned sales for September increased by 3.92% compared to the actual sales in August. The prices of pigs in August declined both month-on-month and year-on-year, mainly due to factors such as the group's reduction in weight for sales, large-scale sales of pigs by individual farmers, and the spread of African swine fever from south to north. Although the planned sales of pig companies in the Yongyi sample increased in September compared to the actual sales in August, the gradually cooling temperatures and improving demand provide support for pig prices. In the short term, pig prices may still be suppressed by the spread of the epidemic, but the reduction in weight for sales by pig companies and the preemptive sales caused by the epidemic further enhance the support for future pig prices, making the outlook for future pig prices not pessimistic.

The main viewpoints of Kaiyuan Securities are as follows:

Industry: Continuous sales of large pigs in August, future pig prices are not pessimistic

The reduction in weight for sales and pressure from the epidemic caused a month-on-month decline in pig prices in August, but future pig prices are not pessimistic. According to Yongyi Consulting, the national average sales price of live pigs in August 2025 is 13.77 yuan/kg, down 5.35% month-on-month and down 32.35% year-on-year. The slaughter volume monitored by Yongyi in August 2025 was 4.3388 million heads, up 4.34% month-on-month and up 5.66% year-on-year. The completion rate of live pig sales in the Yongyi sample in August was 100.04%, and the planned sales for September increased by 3.92% compared to the actual sales in August.

Kaiyuan Securities pointed out that the prices of pigs in August declined both month-on-month and year-on-year, mainly due to the group's reduction in weight for sales, large-scale sales of pigs by individual farmers, and the spread of African swine fever from south to north. Although the planned sales of pig companies in the Yongyi sample increased in September compared to the actual sales in August, the gradually cooling temperatures and improving demand provide support for pig prices. In the short term, pig prices may still be suppressed by the spread of the epidemic, but the reduction in weight for sales by pig companies and the preemptive sales caused by the epidemic further enhance the support for future pig prices, making the outlook for future pig prices not pessimistic.

Sales structure: The proportion of large pig sales increased month-on-month, while the proportion of stock decreased month-on-month. As of September 11, 2025, in the sales structure of live pigs in the Yongyi sample, the proportion of pigs over 150 kg was 5.16%, up 0.02 percentage points week-on-week and down 0.89 percentage points year-on-year, with the proportion of large pig sales lower than the same period in 2024. From the monthly stock structure of live pigs in the Mysteel sample, in August 2025, the proportions of live pigs in the industry for 7-49 kg, 50-89 kg, 90-140 kg, and over 140 kg were 33.4%, 29.6%, 35.9%, and 1.1%, respectively. The proportion of large heavy pigs over 140 kg decreased by 0.67 percentage points month-on-month and increased by 0.27 percentage points year-on-year. The market proportion of large pigs in stock decreased month-on-month, and future supply may gradually tighten.

The profit from pig farming in August shrank month-on-month, and the Yongyi sample showed a 0.07% increase in breeding stock. Affected by the decline in pig prices, the average profit per head for self-bred and self-raised pigs in the industry in August was 36.80 yuan/head (down 63.80% month-on-month). The Yongyi sample showed a 0.07% increase in breeding stock in August 2025. As of September 11, 2025, the price of 15 kg piglets in large-scale farms fell to 394 yuan/head, down 218 yuan/head year-on-year. With the high incidence of diseases in winter, the cost and risk of raising piglets are high, and farmers are cautious about replenishing piglets, putting short-term pressure on piglet prices. The Yongyi sample showed that the breeding stock in the industry in August remained basically stable, and under the influence of policies and the African swine fever epidemic, the breeding stock may further decrease in the future Companies: The average selling price of live pigs for listed pig companies in August fell month-on-month

As of September 10, 2025, 12 listed pig companies released their August live pig sales data. The total number of live pigs sold by listed breeding companies in August was 15.116 million heads, a year-on-year increase of +29.79%. The number of pigs sold in August by MUYUAN, WENS, New Hope, Zhengbang Technology, Tianbang Food, DBN Group, COFCO Joycome, Tiankang Biological, Tangrenshen, Jinxinnong, KINGKEY SMART AGRI, and Shennong Group were 7.001 million, 3.246 million, 1.338 million, 669,700, 529,700, 700,500, 498,000, 263,800, 406,100, 108,000, 189,600, and 166,100 heads respectively, with year-on-year changes of +27.11%, +37.88%, +4.72%, +141.77%, +2.36%, +67.50%, +78.49%, +10.15%, +33.85%, +7.78%, -4.48%, and -4.38%.

In terms of average weight at sale, DBN Group's average weight of commercial pigs sold in August was 126.9 kg/head, an increase of +2.4 kg/head month-on-month. In terms of selling price, the average selling price of the main 10 listed pig companies fell month-on-month. The average selling prices of commercial pigs in August for MUYUAN, WENS, New Hope, Zhengbang Technology, Tianbang Food, DBN Group, COFCO Joycome, Tiankang Biological, KINGKEY SMART AGRI, and Shennong Group were 13.51, 13.9, 13.54, 13.75, 13.71, 13.55, 13.39, 12.79, 14.95, and 13.87 yuan/kg respectively, with month-on-month changes of -5.5%, -6.5%, -6.9%, -6.8%, -6.8%, -5.6%, -7%, -6.4%, -2.5%, and -6.5%.

Risk Warning

Abnormal fluctuations in pig prices, uncertainties related to diseases, and the decline in breeding costs for listed companies not meeting expectations