TrendForce: It is estimated that global laptop shipments will grow by 2.2% year-on-year in 2025, with production capacity in Southeast Asia continuing to expand

According to Zhitong Finance APP, TrendForce has stated that despite the impact of geopolitical factors and tariff uncertainties on the global laptop market in 2025, there are still signs of recovery. TrendForce indicated that since laptop products currently enjoy tariff-free imports to the United States from Southeast Asia, coupled with the previous acceleration of capacity layout in the region due to the U.S. government's implementation of reciprocal tariff policies, capacity has gradually come into place, which will help increase the annual shipment volume of laptops by approximately 2.2% this year, surpassing 180 million units. Observing the shipment momentum this year, the second quarter performed particularly well. On one hand, laptops manufactured in Southeast Asia still enjoy zero tariffs when imported into the United States, prompting brands to actively pull goods in advance. On the other hand, the Chinese market benefited from subsidy policies that drove a wave of upgrades, while Japan saw continued growth in shipments due to the GIGA School 2.0 education project, leading to a quarter-on-quarter increase of 9.5%. Although the U.S. has not yet announced details of semiconductor tariffs for the third quarter, laptops will maintain tariff exemptions. At the same time, brand manufacturers, operating system suppliers, and CPU manufacturers continue to support channels through subsidies, and it is expected that shipment volumes will maintain positive growth, with a quarterly increase of 7.5%. Southeast Asia's Capacity in Focus In the trend of global supply chain restructuring, Southeast Asia has become a major laptop production base outside of China. Dell and Apple have previously made significant investments in Vietnam, driving the gradual formation of supply chain clusters and attracting more brands to follow suit. Due to its proximity to China, convenient transportation, stable policy environment, and young labor force, major OEMs such as Compal, Wistron, LCFC, and Huaqin view Vietnam as a priority location for factory expansion. TrendForce expects that by 2025, Vietnam's share of global laptop production capacity will rapidly rise to 13.5%. Thailand, driven by HP, has seen Quanta and Inventec open new production lines. Thailand has a basic electronic manufacturing industry chain and government investment incentives, and its geographical location makes it an important hub connecting South Asia and the ASEAN market. With multiple component manufacturers entering the market simultaneously, the local supply chain is gradually becoming complete, and it is expected that by 2025, its capacity share will reach 6.7%. In addition to Vietnam and Thailand, due to certain educational and government project requirements that mandate laptops to be "locally manufactured," brands are placing greater emphasis on localized production in regional markets, actively collaborating with local manufacturers to establish capacity in large domestic markets such as India, Indonesia, and Brazil. Although the current scale is still limited, it has become an important bargaining chip for regional penetration, and it is expected that by 2025, the global capacity share could reach 3.7% TrendForce Consulting stated that in 2025, the demand side of the global laptop market will benefit from moderate upgrades and educational programs, while the supply side will accelerate diversification due to capacity relocation and geopolitical factors, with Southeast Asia becoming the next key manufacturing base