Breakfast | The US stock chip sector leads the gains, with the three major indices and small-cap stocks hitting new highs, Intel sees its largest historical increase

Market Overview Chip stocks support, the three major U.S. stock indices and small-cap indices collectively hit new highs for the first time in nearly four years; the chip index rebounded over 3%, with Nvidia rising 3.5% after announcing a cooperation agreement with two companies, and Intel soaring over 20%, marking its largest increase since 1987; Tesla fell over 2% against the trend, ending a seven-day rise. FedEx, with stronger-than-expected first-quarter earnings, briefly rose over 7% after hours; Chinese concept stocks retreated, with the Chinese concept index down nearly 2%, ending a three-day rise, and Alibaba falling over 2%. U.S. Treasury prices fell for two consecutive days, with unemployment claims in the U.S. declining more than expected, and Treasury yields hitting a nearly two-week high. The U.S. dollar index rebounded for two days, continuing to move away from a three-year low; the offshore yuan fell 200 points during the day, breaching 7.11, moving away from an 11-month high; Bitcoin briefly rose over $2,000, approaching the $118,000 mark. During the Asian session, A-shares and Hong Kong stocks plummeted in the afternoon, with the ChiNext index dropping 3% at one point. AI hardware stocks were active, the Hang Seng Index fell 1%, tech stocks broadly declined, and both government bonds and commodities fell. Key News China has requested to terminate orders related to Nvidia's RTX Pro 6000D chip? The Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs responded: We consistently oppose discriminatory practices against specific countries in economic and technological issues. Huawei announced the roadmap for its Ascend AI chips: Ascend 950PR will be launched in Q1 next year, using self-developed HBM. The Bank of England kept interest rates unchanged and slowed the pace of quantitative tightening. In the U.S., last week's initial jobless claims fell significantly to 231,000, a decrease of 32,000 from the previous week, marking the largest drop in nearly four years. Overseas investors set a new high for U.S. Treasury holdings in July, with Japan's holdings reaching a new high in over a year, the UK has increased holdings by over $40 billion for two consecutive months, continuing to set new highs, while China's holdings are at a 16-year low, and Canada's holdings decreased by $57.1 billion. The Trump administration requested the U.S. Supreme Court to allow the dismissal of Federal Reserve Governor Cook. Trump stated that Putin is disappointing and needs to further lower oil prices to force Russia to withdraw from the conflict, with crude oil falling over 1% during the day. Nvidia invested $5 billion in Intel, collaborating to develop PC and data center chips, with Intel's stock price soaring over 20%, marking its largest increase since 1987; Jensen Huang stated that the agreement with Intel focuses on custom chips, denying the involvement of the Trump administration, while Ming-Chi Kuo stated that TSMC's risks are controllable. Microsoft's "world's strongest AI data center" is nearing completion, and it plans to invest $4 billion to build 2.0. Moody's downgraded Oracle's rating to negative, citing risks associated with its $300 billion large order Elon Musk's "Giant Soft Plan" new move exposed, building a computing power cluster from scratch, completing in 6 months the work of OpenAI & Oracle in 15 months. The United States continues to relax digital asset regulations, with the SEC significantly lowering the application threshold for "digital currency ETFs"; cryptocurrency exchange Bullish reports profit in its first financial report after going public, and the Coindesk index aims to become the "MSCI of the crypto world"; the first Dogecoin ETF in the U.S. has been approved for listing. Market Closing Report U.S. and European Stock Markets: The S&P 500 rose 0.48%, closing at 6,631.96 points. The Dow Jones increased by 0.27%, closing at 46,142.42 points. The Nasdaq rose 0.94%, closing at 22,470.725 points. The European STOXX 600 index closed up 0.80%, at 555.01 points. A-shares: The Shanghai Composite Index fell 1.15%, closing at 3,831.66 points; the Shenzhen Component Index fell 1.06%, closing at 13,075.66 points; the ChiNext Index fell 1.64%, closing at 3,095.85 points. Bond Market: Towards the end of the bond market, the yield on the U.S. 10-year benchmark Treasury bond was about 4.10%, up about 1 basis point during the day; the yield on the 2-year U.S. Treasury bond was about 3.56%, also up about 1 basis point during the day. Commodities: WTI October crude oil futures closed down 0.75%, at $63.57 per barrel. Brent November crude oil futures closed down 0.75%, at $67.44 per barrel. COMEX December gold futures closed down 1.06%, at $3,678.3 per ounce. News Details Global Highlights China has requested to terminate orders related to NVIDIA RTX Pro 6000D chips? The Chinese Foreign Ministry responds. According to Global Times, on the 18th, Foreign Ministry spokesperson Lin Jian hosted a regular press conference. A reporter from AFP asked whether it was true that Chinese internet regulators had instructed companies like Alibaba and ByteDance to terminate orders for NVIDIA RTX Pro 6000D chips, as reported by the Financial Times. NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang expressed disappointment regarding this. Can the Chinese side confirm the situation mentioned in the report, and what is the comment on this? Lin Jian responded that specific issues should be referred to the relevant Chinese authorities for clarification. We consistently oppose discriminatory practices against specific countries in economic and technological matters, and China is willing to maintain dialogue and cooperation with all parties to safeguard the stability of the global supply chain Huawei Ascend AI chip roadmap announced: Ascend 950PR to be launched in Q1 next year, using self-developed HBM. Subsequently, the Ascend 950DT will be launched in Q4 2026, the Ascend 960 chip in Q4 2027, and the Ascend 970 chip in Q4 2028. Bank of England keeps interest rates unchanged, slows down quantitative tightening. The Bank of England decided to keep interest rates unchanged but is cautious about further rate cuts this year due to increasing concerns about inflation rebounding. The Bank of England stated that while it expects inflation to return to the 2% target, it has not yet emerged from difficulties. At the same time, the Bank of England announced a slowdown in quantitative tightening to £70 billion and limited long-term bond sales. Initial jobless claims in the U.S. fell significantly last week to 231,000, a decrease of 32,000 from the previous week, marking the largest drop in nearly four years. The decline mainly reflects the normalization of abnormal data in Texas, which shifted from the state with the largest increase in claims to the one with the largest decrease last week. Overseas investors' holdings of U.S. Treasuries hit a new high in July, with Japan's holdings reaching a new high in over a year, China's holdings hitting a new low in over sixteen years, and Canada's holdings decreasing by $57.1 billion. Among the major countries and regions holding U.S. Treasuries, Japan, the number one "creditor" of the U.S., has seen its holdings increase for seven consecutive months, reaching a new high in over a year; the second-largest holder, the UK, has increased its holdings by over $40 billion for two consecutive months, continuing to set historical highs; China's holdings decreased by $25.7 billion, marking the fourth month of reduction in five months. Trump administration requests the U.S. Supreme Court to allow the removal of Federal Reserve Governor Cook. Attorney General Sauer wrote in a Department of Justice document submitted to the Supreme Court: "This application involves another instance of the court's improper interference with the President's removal authority. This is an interference with the President's power to remove members of the Federal Reserve Board for cause." Trump says Putin is disappointing, needs to further lower oil prices, crude oil fell over 1% during trading. Trump admitted that he once thought the Russia-Ukraine conflict was the "easiest" to resolve, but reality has proven otherwise. He stated that if oil prices fall, Putin will withdraw from the Russia-Ukraine conflict. He mentioned that the North Sea has a large amount of oil reserves, implying that prices could be lowered through increased production. Nevertheless, he still stated that now is not the time to "ask Putin for a ceasefire." Intel once surged 30%! Nvidia invested $5 billion in Intel, jointly developing PC and data center chips. Intel will incorporate Nvidia's graphics processing technology into its next-generation PC chips and provide processor support for data center products built on Nvidia hardware. As of Wednesday's close, Intel's market capitalization was approximately $116 billion, and this transaction means Nvidia holds less than 5%. Jensen Huang stated that the agreement with Intel focuses on custom chips, denying the involvement of the Trump administration, and Ming-Chi Kuo stated that TSMC's risks are controllable. Jensen Huang mentioned that the collaboration with Intel will open new areas in the laptop market for Nvidia, making Nvidia a major customer of Intel's CPUs; the Arm roadmap is unaffected; he did not disclose whether chips will be produced using Intel's fabs. Ming-Chi Kuo expects that TSMC's advantageous position in advanced processes may last at least until 2030 and will not be affected by Nvidia's collaboration with Intel, and TSMC's AI chip orders should also remain unaffected. “The world's strongest AI data center” is nearing completion, and Microsoft plans to invest $4 billion to build 2.0. Microsoft's data center Fairwater, built in Wisconsin, USA, at a cost of $3.3 billion, will be operational early next year. It will function as a large AI supercomputer, connecting hundreds of thousands of Nvidia GB200 GPUs through fiber optics long enough to circle the Earth 4.5 times, achieving performance ten times that of the current fastest supercomputer in the world. Microsoft plans to invest another $4 billion to build a second data center of the same scale in the same state. Moodys downgraded Oracle's rating to negative, citing risks in its $300 billion deal. Moody's is primarily concerned about Oracle's excessive reliance on a few clients, creating counterparty risks. The agency expects Oracle's debt growth to exceed EBITDA growth, with leverage potentially rising to 4 times, and free cash flow may be negative for an extended period. Currently, Oracle's Moody's credit rating is Baa2, at the low end of the investment grade. Elon Musk's "Giant Hard Plan" new actions revealed, building a computing cluster from scratch, completing in 6 months the work of OpenAI & Oracle in 15 months. Giant Hard has become a key part of Musk's business landscape, with the Colossus II computing cluster being related to the Giant Hard plan. According to the plan, the first phase of Colossus II will deploy 110,000 Nvidia GB200 GPUs, with a final goal of exceeding 550,000 GPUs, and peak power demand is expected to exceed 1.1 gigawatts. A longer-term roadmap even plans to expand the total number of GPUs to 1 million Elon Musk: The report of a deal for 10,000 Tesla Optimus robots is "false". Big Tech's "AI Cash Burn Battle": Current scale underestimated, future depreciation underestimated, price war may erupt as early as 2027. Morgan Stanley predicts that by 2027, the capital expenditure of five companies including Amazon and Google will account for 26% of their revenue, approaching the peak level during the internet bubble. Off-balance-sheet tools like financing leases have led to an underestimation of investment scale. Bank of America warns that by 2027, the depreciation of just Google, Amazon, and Meta may be underestimated by $16.4 billion, potentially leading to a price war due to supply-demand imbalances, thereby eroding profitability. The U.S. continues to relax digital asset regulations, SEC significantly lowers the application threshold for "digital currency ETFs". The new rules overturn the case-by-case review method that has been in place since 2013, allowing asset management companies to apply based on unified standards, greatly simplifying the digital currency ETF approval process, reducing the approval time from 240 days to a maximum of 75 days. The market expects the first beneficiaries to be ETFs tracking Solana and XRP. Analysts believe this marks a watershed moment in the U.S. digital asset regulatory approach, with the first products expected to launch as early as October. Cryptocurrency exchange Bullish reports profit in its first earnings report post-listing, Coindesk aims to be the "MSCI of the crypto world". Bullish's first earnings report post-listing achieved a net profit of $108.3 million, turning a profit after losses, with total trading volume increasing to $179.6 billion year-on-year. However, excluding one-time items, the company still reported an adjusted loss of $6 million, with a slight decline in revenue. The company's ambitions extend beyond exchange operations; the CEO revealed during the earnings call that CoinDesk aims to create the "MSCI of the crypto world" and announced that it has obtained a virtual currency business license in New York. Cryptocurrency ETFs reach a watershed: The U.S. approves the first Dogecoin ETF for listing. The Rex-Osprey Dogecoin ETF approval marks a watershed moment for the SEC's shift towards supporting cryptocurrencies. This Wednesday, the SEC approved new simplified listing standards for cryptocurrency ETFs, with a significant policy shift driving the explosion of cryptocurrency ETFs. Currently, there are 90 to 100 cryptocurrency ETF applications awaiting approval, and analysts expect these products to be approved. Domestic Macro Goldman Sachs' heavyweight report details China's (liquidity) bull market. Goldman Sachs believes that the current rise in the Chinese stock market is primarily driven by liquidity, with "re-inflation" expectations and AI autonomy being key catalysts Institutional investors are the main buyers. The fundamentals for the current A-share market forming a "slow bull" seem to be more solid than ever. If the proportion of institutional holdings increases to the average level of emerging or developed markets, it could potentially bring in 14 trillion or 30 trillion yuan of inflows to the A-share market. Domestic Companies Zhengzhou Market Supervision Administration discusses regulating business behavior with Ctrip. Overseas Macroeconomics Retail investors take over US stocks, with "zero days to expiration" options accounting for over 60% of total US stock trading volume, and "fractional share" trading reaching 66%. According to Goldman Sachs data, the trading volume of 0DTE "zero days to expiration" options accounted for over 60% of total US stock trading volume for the first time in the third quarter, setting a historical high and becoming the preferred tool for retail investors chasing short-term gains. At the same time, "fractional share" trading (transactions of less than 100 shares) surged from 31% in 2019 to 66%, reflecting a significant increase in retail participation. Data from Citadel shows that retail investors have maintained net buying for 19 out of the past 22 weeks, with cash reserves in money market funds reaching a record $7.3 trillion, which may drive future risk asset allocation. Surge in commodity fund inflows, inflation "traders" sound the alarm: global inflation may resurface in 6-9 months. Strategist Simon White stated that historical data shows metal prices lead global CPI by about 6-9 months. The current acceleration of commodity fund inflows and rising metal prices resembles the pre-inflation period of 2020-2021. This stands in stark contrast to the excessive confidence in the stock and bond markets, indicating that the market's general view on inflation may be overly optimistic. Amid tariff panic, Swiss gold exports to the US plummet. Swiss customs data shows that in August, Swiss gold exports to the US fell from over 30 tons the previous month to just 0.3 tons, a decline of over 99%. Due to tariff panic, the total export volume from Switzerland to the US also decreased by 22% month-on-month in August. Overseas Companies Meta Connect Conference: AI smart glasses matrix upgraded, gesture control + built-in screen glasses priced at $799. Meta launched its first Ray-Ban smart glasses with a built-in display, priced at $799, featuring a monocular digital display and a wristwatch for gesture control. The new generation of Ray-Ban smart glasses has doubled battery life and is priced at $379, while also releasing the Oakley Vanguard smart glasses aimed at athletes. The AI demonstration segment faced some hiccups, and Zuckerberg humorously remarked, "I always mess things up." This year's Meta Connect conference was "eye-opening". Mark Zuckerberg launched the strongest AI glasses in history, but compared to the cool new products and features, what stood out at the launch event was perhaps the continuous failures of the new AI functions: AI answering off-topic, Neural Band malfunctioning, and various glitches forced Zuckerberg to squeeze out an awkward yet polite smile, blaming the issues on the Wi-Fi network at the venue. xAI's turmoil at the executive level, conflicts with Musk's advisors, multiple executives resign. Media reports indicate that several xAI executives have recently resigned due to conflicts with two of Musk's close advisors over management style and financial issues. According to insiders, the executives expressed concerns about the lack of clear management hierarchy and overly optimistic financial forecasts, questioning the role of Musk's family office in fund management. Resigners include former X CEO Linda Yaccarino and former CFO Mike Liberatore. AI chip unicorn Groq's valuation doubles in a year, claims "to surpass NVIDIA in three years," latest financing exceeds expectations at 5.3 billion yuan. Groq recently completed a round of financing of $750 million (approximately 5.3 billion yuan), with a valuation reaching $6.9 billion (approximately 49 billion yuan). The company is dedicated to creating LPU (Language Processing Unit) chips that can provide high-speed, low-cost AI inference to challenge NVIDIA's monopoly in the AI chip field. Groq's CEO stated that the new financing will be used to expand data center capacity, with plans to announce the first data center location in the Asia-Pacific region within this year. "Shanzhai coin launch platform" Pump.fun is hot again, live streaming sales surpass "crypto derivatives exchange" Hyperliquid in daily revenue. Driven by the September boom in Shanzhai coins, the Solana-based token issuance platform Pump.fun's daily trading volume once exceeded $1 billion, surpassing the well-known derivatives exchange Hyperliquid in revenue. By introducing live streaming features, Pump.fun attracted a large number of creators and funds, paying out $4 million in rewards to creators. However, the platform also faces high risks and regulatory controversies. Novo Nordisk's Ozempic outperforms Eli Lilly's Trulicity, stock price sees largest increase in a month. A Medicare report based on nearly 60,000 patients shows that Novo Nordisk's Ozempic reduces the risk of heart attacks, strokes, and death by 23% compared to Eli Lilly's Trulicity Novo Nordisk's stock price soared over 7%. Prior to this, Eli Lilly had already posed significant competitive pressure on Novo Nordisk with Mounjaro and Zepbound. Today's News Preview Japan's August CPI. The Bank of Japan announces its interest rate decision, and Governor Kazuo Ueda holds a press conference. Speech by Mary Daly, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. FTSE A50 Index quarterly adjustment. Huawei Connect 2025.