Tianfeng Securities: The third phase of the match point 2.0 is challenging, setbacks are inevitable, and attention should be paid to the Hang Seng Internet

According to the report from Tianfeng Securities, based on economic recovery and market liquidity, the investment mainline can be reduced to three directions: 1) Technology AI led by Deepseek breakthroughs and open-source, 2) Internal and external resonance, with the economy gradually recovering, the bull market mainline style of "the strong get stronger," but the second half of the cycle may show some performance, 3) The undervalued dividend continues to rise. Dividend pullbacks often occur when there is a strong industrial trend, so the height of the undervalued dividend depends on the progress of the AI industry trend, which in turn depends on breakthroughs in AI applications and consumption, with a focus on Hang Seng Internet. In the early stages of the bull market, funds prefer a few high-prosperity tracks, while in the later stages, funds cluster around the mainline, making it more difficult for new funds to profit, while cyclical stocks have the attributes of low valuation and high beta, making them likely to perform well as the fundamentals improve, attracting incremental funds. The main points of Tianfeng Securities are as follows: Market Reflection: Style and Industry Performance After the Consolidation and Accumulation Period of the 2014-15 Bull Market 1) In the 2014-15 bull market, the crowding degree of the large-cap style showed a characteristic of "rapid rise - fall and bottoming," and after the reversal of the bull market trend, the crowding degree of large-cap stocks rose again to a new high. The current trend of large-cap crowding is similar to that of Q4 2014, with a low point of 20% in early July and a high point of 30% in early September. 2) In terms of style, during 2014-15, financials and stable styles led in the first phase but significantly underperformed during the consolidation and accumulation phase, while growth styles gradually led during the consolidation and accumulation period and continued to perform significantly in the third phase, while financials lagged in the first phase. If the endpoint of the third phase is the peak of large-cap crowding (trend reversal), then stability leads, with other styles performing similarly. 3) In terms of industry, a. In the first phase of 2014-15, non-bank financials, banks, construction decoration, steel, and real estate sectors led, but all fell to the lower part of the industry gain list during the adjustment phase. In the second phase, TMT sectors such as computers, media, and electronics rebounded significantly, ranking high in gains. b. In this round of adjustment, industries that previously led, such as telecommunications, electronics, and power equipment, maintained strength overall, with only non-ferrous metals showing a decline. Additionally, some lagging industries began to improve during the adjustment period, with coal rising from 28th to 9th place, and real estate and automotive sectors also significantly improving their rankings. Domestic: Three Major Economic Data in August Show Marginal Weakness, Fiscal Revenue and Expenditure Slightly Decline The three major economic data in August all showed marginal weakness, with industrial output, social consumption, and investment all declining and below WIND consensus expectations, with industrial added value year-on-year at 5.2%, expected at 5.75%, previous value at 5.7%, social consumption year-on-year at 3.4%, expected at 3.82%, previous value at 3.7%, and fixed asset investment growth at 0.5%, previous value at 1.6%, expected at 1.29%. 2) In August, fiscal revenue showed a cumulative year-on-year increase, with a slight decline in the month; tax revenue year-on-year declined, while the year-on-year decline in non-tax revenue narrowed, and fiscal expenditure year-on-year declined. In August, national government fund revenue year-on-year declined, and land transactions continued to fall. 3) In terms of high-frequency indicators for transportation, the subway passenger volume index rebounded. 4) The industrial production index rebounded, with Tangshan blast furnaces, Shandong refineries, tires, and polyester filament rebounding, while soda ash and methanol declined Domestic Policy Tracking: China and the United States held talks in Madrid, Spain regarding economic and trade issues such as TikTok; President Xi Jinping had a phone call with U.S. President Trump. International: September FOMC Interest Rate Cut as Expected Russia-Ukraine Conflict Tracking: The European Commission approved the draft of the 19th round of sanctions against Russia; Russia claims to maintain offensive operations in almost all directions of the special military operation against Ukraine; Russian Deputy Foreign Minister stated that it is too early to discuss a trilateral summit involving Russia, Ukraine, and the U.S. 2) Middle East Conflict Tracking: Israel warned of using "unprecedented force" in Gaza City; the Israeli military closed temporary evacuation routes for residents of Gaza City; the U.S. again vetoed a resolution for a ceasefire in Gaza; the European Union plans to sanction Israeli officials and suspend preferential treatment for goods exported from Israel to the EU. 3) The September FOMC cut interest rates as expected. The Federal Reserve lowered the target range for the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to between 4.00% and 4.25%. The forecasts from Federal Reserve policymakers indicate a further rate cut of 50 basis points in 2025, and 25 basis points in both 2026 and 2027. Risk Warning: Geopolitical conflicts exceed expectations, overseas inflation persists beyond expectations, and liquidity tightening exceeds expectations