Wedbush raises Apple to $310: iPhone 17 demand is "exploding" and the upgrade wave is really here!

According to the Zhitong Finance APP, driven by strong demand signals for the iPhone 17 series, Wedbush has raised its target price for Apple (AAPL.US) from $270 to $310. The firm pointed out that the iPhone 17 series is driving Apple into a genuine replacement cycle and maintains an "outperform" rating on Apple.

The analyst team led by Daniel Ives stated, "Based on the strong demand signals evident in the early stages of the iPhone 17 series, we are raising Apple's target price from $270 to $310. With the official launch of the iPhone 17 last weekend, its demand trajectory has exceeded our expectations—so far, sales are 10%-15% higher year-on-year compared to the iPhone 16 series."

The analyst team assessed through research in the Asian supply chain that the production of the standard and Pro versions of the iPhone 17 may increase by about 20%. Additionally, after communicating with consumers at Apple stores last weekend, they found that the newly launched "iPhone Air" is expected to be a "surprise hit" in this round of Apple's replacement cycle.

By tracking product shipping times, analysts also observed that demand for the iPhone 17 Pro series is particularly strong, which they believe is a positive signal for Apple.

Ives and his team stated, "Before the release of the iPhone 17 series, we expected this replacement cycle to perform 'well but not outstanding.' However, the actual situation has exceeded expectations: on one hand, there is a significant backlog of consumer replacement demand—according to our estimates, among the 1.5 billion iPhones globally, 315 million have not been updated in the past four years; on the other hand, the optimization and upgrades in product design have also played a key role, and the combination of the two has become the 'winning formula' for the start of this cycle."

Regarding Apple's iPhone shipment volume for the fiscal year 2026, analysts believe that the current market expectation of about 230 million units may be conservative. If the current demand pace continues, shipments are expected to reach between 240 million and 250 million units.

Analysts emphasized, "Demand in the Chinese market will be the core pillar of Apple's iPhone 17 replacement cycle. The negative growth trend in the Chinese market over the past few years is expected to reverse in fiscal year 2026, achieving positive growth."

However, they also mentioned that the launch of the iPhone Air in China has been delayed due to regulatory approvals related to eSIM, but this issue is expected to be resolved within the next month, at which point the model can be sold through offline stores and online channels in China. Analysts stated that Apple urgently needs to drive growth in its Chinese business, and competition from local brands remains a significant challenge.

Ives' team pointed out, "Apple's 'invisible AI strategy' has always been a focus of industry attention. Currently, Apple has the largest consumer device user base globally—2.4 billion iOS devices and 1.5 billion iPhones, and now is a critical time to accelerate AI deployment through external collaborations."

Additionally, analysts noted that in the Google (GOOGL.US) antitrust lawsuit, both Google and Apple were victorious. Theoretically, Google is prohibited from signing "exclusive agreements" for search services, but this ruling lays the foundation for Apple to continue its collaboration with Google. Analysts believe this may prompt Apple to further deepen its AI collaboration with Google Gemini and integrate it into the iPhone ecosystem Regarding the impact of AI business on Apple's stock price, analysts expect that the commercialization of AI could bring an increase of $75 to $100 per share for Apple in the coming years.

Analysts concluded: "We believe that the current Apple stock price does not reflect any 'AI premium.' From this perspective, Apple, as a high-quality target among large tech stocks, has high investment attractiveness both by the end of this year and during 2026."