CITIC Securities: Assigns Alibaba-W a "Buy" rating, with flash sales business stable profit contribution potentially reaching 18.3 billion yuan

CITIC Securities released a research report stating a "Buy" rating for Alibaba-W. Since February 2025, the company has upgraded its layout across three major platforms, entering the instant retail sector through food delivery. As a high-frequency essential traffic entry point, the food delivery business can effectively drive local life and e-commerce operations, helping the platform seize the competitive high ground in future retail formats. Alibaba's "One Taobao" strategy has been upgraded, with organizational structure adjustments and comprehensive integration of member benefits. After the launch of Flash Purchase, the effects of user acquisition and retention have been significant, with category supply leveraging the advantages of e-commerce merchants to form differentiated competition in clothing, electronics, and beauty and personal care sectors, while rider capacity is rapidly replenished. The firm stated that considering Alibaba's prominent financial advantages, it expects a dual oligopoly competition pattern centered around Alibaba and Meituan to form in the medium term. Relying on a dual-mode development of full-category business, the firm anticipates a contribution of 1 trillion incremental GMV from FY2026 to FY2028. The company emphasizes optimizing efficiency after scaling up, with a clear trend of improving UE. The firm estimates that the steady-state profit contribution from the Flash Purchase business could reach 18.3 billion yuan, and in an optimistic valuation scenario, based on forward valuation discounting, the potential market value increase space in 2026 could be nearly 200 billion yuan