Looming $12B Hyperliquid unlock sparks debate: ‘Has the market priced in…?’

Key TakeawaysCould a $12B unlock affect HYPE’s rally?Arthur Hayes’ Maelstrom Fund and other big players’ sell-off could derail HYPE ahead of the November unlock.Will a 45% supply cut proposal improve HYPE’s upside odds?The impact on HYPE’s price will depend on community reactions and the project’s response to the supply cut proposal.Whales and community members have expressed concerns over the upcoming Hyperliquid [HYPE] monthly token unlocks set to begin in November.A section of members now wants the overall Hyperliquid total supply reduced by 45%. This could be done by burning all 31 million HYPE from buybacks (from Assisted Funds, AF) and doing away with upcoming tokens (421 million HYPE) meant for community growth.The proposal by pseudonymous crypto researcher Hasu of Flashbots and Jon Charbonneau stated that the move would be ‘positive’ for HYPE’s value.“We view these changes as strictly positive optionality…we believe this proposal offers material economic benefits to Hyperliquid with little to no downside.”Source: XHYPE has a supply cap of one billion tokens, and the proposal would remove about 450 million tokens, or 45% of the supply.A solution to $12B HYPE unlock?Some opposed the proposal, arguing that it would negatively impact community members or Hyperliquid users. But Hasu quipped that the ‘community tokens’ aren’t ‘owed to anyone’ at the moment.The ongoing debate is linked to the 10 million HYPE monthly token unlock scheduled for November.According to Maestrom Fund, a family office for BitMEX founder Arthur Hayes, about $12B will be unlocked in the next 24 months. Per its projection, this would be bearish, prompting it to offload its HYPE holdings.The fund added that the current buyback program and treasury demand can only absorb a tiny portion of the supply overhang that is not priced in at current values.“The problem? Buybacks at current levels can only absorb ~17%. That leaves a $410M/month supply overhang. Has the market priced in the sheer scale of these unlocks?”Source: Maelstrom FundOver the weekend, another whale reportedly withdrew over $120 million HYPE likely for a sell-off, according to Looknonchain.But Hayes added that the 126x rally for Hyperliquid was ‘still possible’ by 2028 after the unlocks.The moves by these big players dragged HYPE’s price below $50 as of press time. Additionally, the debut of Aster [ASTER] perpetual DEX, a rival, dragged sentiment into the negative territory over the weekend.Source: SantimentAlthough the market sentiment turned positive at the time of writing, Q4 price movement could be dictated by competition and Hyperliquid team’s response to the unlock issue.