<div id="readability-page-1">Shares of Rivian Automotive (NASDAQ:RIVN) gained 4.82% over the past five trading sessions after gaining 0.14%% the five prior. That brings RIVN’s year-to-date gain to 13.96%. Over the past year, the stock is up 26.78%. In July, the EV maker announced that is continuing work on its Georgia plant, which is slated to open in 2028. Earlier in July, Rivian announced a partnership with Google Maps on a new navigation system for its electric vehicles. Rivian will continue to offer its own customized navigation interface on the 15.6-inch center touchscreen, but the underlying data is now powered by the Automotive SDK from Google Maps instead of third-party alternatives. On June 2, it was reported that Rivian was eyeing a new debt deal as expected vehicle deliveries slumped. The U.S.-based EV maker announced plans to offer $1.25 billion in senior secure green notes due 2031 in a private offering. The EV maker plans to use those funds, as well as cash on hand, to redeem $1.25 billion of outstanding senior secured notes due in 2026. On Sept. 23, Mizuho raised its price target on Rivian to $14 from $12, keeping a “Neutral” rating on the shares. The firm increased estimates in the autos space, saying U.S. tariffs should have a minimal impact on new vehicle prices. In addition, August U.S. electric vehicle sales were up 17% year-over-year as consumers look to cash in before the Inflation Reduction Act credits end, according to a Mizhuo research note to investors. The company reported full-year earnings in late February, announcing a negative gross profit of $1.2 billion compared to negative $2 billion in 2023, alongside record gross profits in Q4. Rivian expects to announce Q2 earnings on Aug. 5 after the market closes. Institutional ownership remains somewhat wary of the stock, with 54.82% of its float currently held by institutions. The largest institutional holder of RIVN remains Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) with more than 158 million shares. The EV company IPO’ed in November 2021 and immediately made a splash with its stock price skyrocketing to $180 in just its first week of trading. The cash infusion was a much-needed lifeline for Rivian, with $3.7 billion in operating expenses in 2021 and only delivering 920 vehicles. The company also had backers in Amazon and Ford (NYSE:F), who held 260 million shares of Rivian collectively at IPO. But as the COVID-19 lockdown investing frenzy died out, it left an SUV-sized hole in Rivian’s stock price, with the stock currently trading more than 88% lower than its post-IPO and all-time high. 24/7 Wall St. aims to provide readers with our assumptions about the stock prospects going forward, what growth we see in Rivian for the next several years, and what our best estimates are for Rivian’s stock price each year through 2030. <div id="keypoints"> <div> <ul> <li> Key growth drivers include cost reduction in EV components and increased production capacity, targeting profitability by 2027. </li> <li> Rivian aims to cut material costs by 45% with the introduction of its Gen 2 platform by 2026. </li> <li> If you’re looking for a megatrend with massive potential, make sure to grab a complimentary copy of our “The Next NVIDIA” report. The report includes a complete industry map of AI investments that includes many small caps. </li> </ul> </div> </div> <h2>Rivian vs. Tesla: The Early Years </h2> The following is a table of Rivian’s revenues, operating income and share price for the first few years as a public company. Here’s a table summarizing performance in share price, revenues, and profits (net income) from 2014 to 2018. <table> <tbody> <tr> <td>Year</td> <td>Share Price </td> <td>Revenues</td> <td>Net Income</td> </tr> <tr> <td>2021</td> <td>$50.24</td> <td>$55.0 million</td> <td>($4.22 billion)</td> </tr> <tr> <td>2022</td> <td>$19.30</td> <td>$1.658.0 billion</td> <td>($6.856 billion)</td> </tr> <tr> <td>2023</td> <td>$10.70</td> <td>$4.434.0 billion</td> <td>($5.739 billion)</td> </tr> <tr> <td>2024</td> <td>$13.25</td> <td>$4.997.0 billion</td> <td>($4.689 billion)</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> Now let’s take a look at Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) in the first few years it manufactured and sold the Model S (the official launch of the Model S was June 22, 2012). <table> <tbody> <tr> <td>Year</td> <td>Share Price </td> <td>Revenues</td> <td>Net Income</td> </tr> <tr> <td>2011</td> <td>$2.24</td> <td>$204.2 million</td> <td>($2.45 million)</td> </tr> <tr> <td>2012</td> <td>$2.25</td> <td>$413.3 million</td> <td>($3.96 million)</td> </tr> <tr> <td>2013</td> <td>$16.87</td> <td>$2.013 billion</td> <td>($74 million)</td> </tr> <tr> <td>2014</td> <td>$13.81</td> <td>$3.198 billion</td> <td>($294 million)</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> While revenue growth for both firms after launching their first mass-market vehicles is similar, Tesla’s net income was much more favorable. Tesla CEO Elon Musk has always been a proponent of word-of-mouth marketing and a hawkish approach to minimizing product costs, allowing his company to stay afloat while moving to new lines of automobiles. The biggest question facing Rivian investors today is, can they lower costs, and when will positive net income be realized? <h2>Key Drivers of Rivian’s Stock Performance</h2> 1. EV Technology and Cost Curves: Rivian’s next generation (G2) R1 vehicles are designed for performance upgrades while at the same time reducing component costs. For example, the number of electronic components will be reduced by 60%, over 60 parts will be eliminated, the compact motor will be redesigned, and close to 2000 connections or welds will be removed. These changes alone are expected to drop materials costs by 20% and speed up the assembly line by 30%. Looking into the back half of 2026, Rivian sees a material cost reduction of 45% for the R2 line of vehicles. Rivian is also investing in enhanced advanced driver assistance systems with improved cameras, radar, and NVIDIA-powered computing power, creating highway assist and 360-degree visibility. 2. Electric Vehicle Demand and Incentives: Rivian is currently delivering around 13 thousand vehicles per quarter, which is above analyst estimates, and producing 9 thousand new G2 vehicles per quarter, which keeps it on pace to produce 57,000 units in 2024. The total plant capacity is 215,000 vehicles with expansion plans of 400,000 additional vehicles in Georgia. 3. Management’s Path to Profits: Rivian also expects profitability from the R1 platform through premium configurations and scale benefits. The company targets positive adjusted EBITDA by 2027, with long-term goals of 25% gross margin, high teens adjusted EBITDA margin, and 10% FCF margin. <ul> <li> <ul> <li>Material Cost Reduction: The introduction of the Gen 2 platform and commercial cost downs are expected to reduce material costs by ~20%.</li> <li>Fixed Cost Reduction: Improved labor and overhead costs, reduced depreciation, and lower LCNRV charges due to a 30% increase in production line rate and design changes.</li> <li>Increased Revenue From Credits: Strong demand for regulatory credits, with over $200 million contracted for FY24.</li> </ul> </li> </ul> <img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://247wallst.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/Rivian_R1S_at_Hillsdale_Shopping_Center.jpg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" width="2560" height="1928" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://247wallst.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/Rivian_R1S_at_Hillsdale_Shopping_Center.jpg"/> <h2>Rivian (RIVN) Stock vs. Tesla Stock: Why Rivian Receives Different Treatment</h2> Taking a historic look at pricing Rivian stock would start by comparing the sales multiples Tesla received in 2012 to 2015 when the Model S scaled. Tesla was feeling the weight of expansion and keeping its debt load manageable and the market-priced Tesla stock was close to 10x sales. While Rivian is in a similar situation, albeit with more debt and higher expanses, the market is only valuing the stock at under 3 times sales. Let’s take a look at why that is the case. <ul> <li>Market Position and Brand Recognition: <ul> <li>Tesla: By 2011-2015, Tesla had already established itself as a leading innovator in the electric vehicle (EV) market, with significant brand recognition and a first-mover advantage.</li> <li>Rivian: Rivian is relatively new to the market and still building its brand and market position.</li> </ul> </li> <li>Production and Sales Volumes: <ul> <li>Tesla: From 2011 to 2015, Tesla ramped up production and sales, particularly with the Model S, which gained popularity and market traction.</li> <li>Rivian: Rivian is still in the early stages of production, with limited sales volumes compared to Tesla’s growth phase.</li> </ul> </li> <li>Investor Expectations and Sentiment: <ul> <li>Tesla: Investors had high expectations for Tesla’s future growth and disruptive potential in the auto industry, leading to higher valuation multiples.</li> <li>Rivian: While Rivian has potential, it has not yet demonstrated the same level of market disruption or growth trajectory that Tesla did during its comparable early years.</li> </ul> </li> <li>Competitive Landscape: <ul> <li>Tesla: Had fewer direct competitors in the EV space during its early years, allowing for a larger market share and higher investor confidence.</li> <li>Rivian: Faces more competition from established automakers entering the EV market and other new entrants, impacting its relative valuation.</li> </ul> </li> </ul> <h2>Rivian(RIVN) Stock Forecast Through 2030 </h2> <table> <tbody> <tr> <td>Year</td> <td>Revenue*</td> <td>Shares Outstanding</td> <td>P/S Est. </td> </tr> <tr> <td>2025</td> <td>$5.374</td> <td>1.131 B</td> <td>2.5x</td> </tr> <tr> <td>2026</td> <td>$7.489</td> <td>1.131 B</td> <td>2.2x</td> </tr> <tr> <td>2027</td> <td>$11.800</td> <td>1.131 B</td> <td>2.0x</td> </tr> <tr> <td>2028</td> <td>$20.931</td> <td>1.131 B</td> <td>1.8x</td> </tr> <tr> <td>2029</td> <td>$28.948</td> <td>1.131 B</td> <td>1.6x</td> </tr> <tr> <td>2030</td> <td>$36.236</td> <td>1.131 B</td> <td>1.4x</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> *Revenue in $billions <h2>Rivian (RIVN) Stock Prediction in 2025</h2> According to Wall Street analysts, the current median one-year price target for Rivian’s stock is $13.94, which represents potential downside of 7.68% from today’s share price. Of the 23 analysts covering RIVN, the stock is a consensus “Hold,” with seven analysts providing a “Buy” rating, 13 providing a “Hold” rating and three providing a “Sell” rating. However, 24/7 Wall St.’s 12-month price target for Rivian stock is $11.88, which represents potential downside of 21.32% from today’s share price. <h2>Rivian (RIVN) Stock Forecast 2o25–2030</h2> By the end of 2030, we estimate Rivian’s stock price to be $44.85 per share. Our estimated price target for RIVN represents 197.02% potential upside from where shares are currently trading. <table> <tbody> <tr> <td>Year</td> <td>Price Target</td> <td>%Change From Current Price </td> </tr> <tr> <td>2025</td> <td>$11.88</td> <td>-21.32%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>2026</td> <td>$14.57</td> <td>-3.50%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>2027</td> <td>$20.87</td> <td>38.21%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>2028</td> <td>$33.31</td> <td>120.59%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>2029</td> <td>$40.95</td> <td>171.19%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>2030</td> <td>$44.85</td> <td>197.02%</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> The post Rivian (NASDAQ: RIVN) Price Prediction and Forecast 2025-2030 for September 23 appeared first on 24/7 Wall St..</div>

RIVN

Rivian Automotive (NASDAQ:RIVN) shares rose 4.82% over the past week, with a year-to-date gain of 13.96% and a 26.78% increase over the past year. The company is progressing on its Georgia plant, set to open in 2028, and has partnered with Google Maps for a new navigation system. Mizuho raised Rivian's price target to $14, maintaining a "Neutral" rating. Rivian aims for profitability by 2027, targeting a 45% reduction in material costs with its Gen 2 platform by 2026. Institutional ownership stands at 54.82%, with Amazon as the largest holder.