Guotai Junan Securities: Continuously optimistic about the new product cycle in the gaming sector and the bottom reversal of the film and television industry, focusing on bottom opportunities in AI applications

According to the Zhitong Finance APP, Guosen Securities released a research report stating that domestic 3D models and AI lightweight models are continuously advancing rapidly. Tencent has released the Hongyuan 3D 3.0 model, Alibaba Cloud has open-sourced Tongyi DeepResearch, and Baidu's new model ERNIE-4.5-21B-A3B-Thinking has topped the Hugging Face rankings. The film "731" has been performing well at the box office. Guosen Securities remains optimistic about the new product cycle in the gaming sector and the bottom reversal in the film and television industry, focusing on bottom opportunities in AI applications. With improvements in the fundamental bottom, attention is on sectors such as gaming, advertising media, and film and television, aiming to capture individual stock alpha.

The gaming sector should grasp product cycles and performance from the bottom up, recommending stocks such as Kaixin Network (002517.SZ), G-bits (603444.SH), and XD INC (02400); on the media side, attention should be paid to the growth in advertising spending brought about by the economic bottoming out, such as Focus Media (002027.SZ) and Bilibili (09626); for film content, focus on potential improvements at the supply side bottom, such as WANDA FILM (002739.SZ) and HUACE FILM & TV (300133.SZ); from the perspective of high dividends, low valuations, and enhanced market value management, attention should be paid to the state-owned publishing sector.

The industry beta continues to favor the high prosperity of IP trendy toys and AI applications in the 0 to 1 stage. Recommended IP trendy toys include Pop Mart (09992), Zhejiang Shuju (600633.SH), and Yaoji Technology (002605.SZ); for AI applications, focus on opportunities in application scenarios, paying attention to gaming, toys, advertising, education, e-commerce, social media, etc.; for B2B/B2G, focus on the potential for implementation in marketing and education; for B2C, focus on AI gaming and AI toys.

Guosen Securities' main viewpoints are as follows:

Media sector performance this week: the industry rose by 0.38%, outperforming the CSI 300 but underperforming the ChiNext Index. This week (9.15-9.19), the media industry rose by 0.38%, outperforming the CSI 300 (-1.01%) but underperforming the ChiNext Index (1.22%). Among them, the top gainers were Jishi Media, Guomai Culture, Leo Group, and ST Huicheng, while the top losers were Happy Blue Ocean, ST Huayang, Shanghai Film, and Jinyi Film. In a horizontal comparison, this week the media sector ranked 12th in terms of gains and losses among all sectors.

Key focus: Domestic 3D models and AI lightweight models continue to advance rapidly, and the film "731" has been performing well at the box office. 1) Tencent released the Hongyuan 3D 3.0 model, whose 3D-DiT grading carving technology significantly improved modeling accuracy, while also launching the Hongyuan 3D Studio platform and open-source plan, greatly enhancing 3D production efficiency; 2) Alibaba Cloud has open-sourced Tongyi DeepResearch, which has only 30B parameters (activated 3B) and achieved SOTA results on multiple authoritative evaluation sets; 3) Recently, Baidu's new model ERNIE-4.5-21B-A3B-Thinking topped the Hugging Face rankings; 4) On September 18, the film "731" was released, and in three days, the box office approached 1 billion yuan Important data tracking this week: Diandian Interactive continues to perform well, with the release of "731" boosting box office performance. 1) This week (September 15 - September 21), the box office reached 1.212 billion yuan. The top three films are "731" (1.065 billion yuan, accounting for 87.9% of the box office), "Catching the Wind and Chasing Shadows" (45 million yuan, accounting for 3.7%), and "The Little Monster of Langlang Mountain" (23 million yuan, accounting for 1.9%); 2) In terms of variety shows, "Ace vs. Ace Season 9," "Earth Super Fresh," "Heartbeat Signal Season 8," "Flowers and Youth Together Season," and "One Meal to Seal the Gods" ranked at the top; 3) In the gaming sector, the top three mobile game revenues in China for August 2025 are Diandian Interactive's "Whiteout Survival," Diandian Interactive's "Kingshot," and Lemon Weiqu's "Gossip Harbor: Merge&Story."

Investment advice: Continue to be optimistic about the new product cycle in the gaming sector and the bottom reversal of the film and television industry, while paying attention to bottom opportunities in AI applications. 1) Improvement in the fundamental bottom, focus on sectors such as gaming, advertising media, and film and television, and seize individual stock alpha. The gaming sector should grasp product cycles and performance from the bottom up, recommending stocks like Kaiying Network, G-bits, and XD INC; on the media side, pay attention to the growth of advertising spending brought by the economic bottom (Focus Media, Bilibili, etc.); for film content, focus on the potential improvement on the supply side, channels (WANDA FILM, etc.), and content (HUACE FILM & TV, etc.); from the perspective of high dividends, low valuations, and market value management enhancement, pay attention to the state-owned publishing sector; 2) Industry beta continues to favor the high prosperity of IP trendy toys and AI applications from 0 to 1 stage. For IP trendy toys, recommend Pop Mart, Zhejiang Digital Culture, and Yaoji Technology; for AI applications, focus on application scenario opportunities in gaming, toys, advertising, education, e-commerce, social media, etc.; for 2B/2G, pay attention to the landing possibilities in marketing and education; for 2C, focus on AI games and AI toys.

Risk warning: Regulatory policy risks; performance risks; goodwill and asset impairment risks, etc