U.S. Stock Outlook | Three Major Index Futures Decline Together, U.S. Government Faces Shutdown Crisis Again

1. As of September 25th (Thursday) before the US stock market opens, the three major US stock index futures are all down. As of the time of writing, Dow futures are down 0.09%, S&P 500 futures are down 0.39%, and Nasdaq futures are down 0.53%.

1. As of the time of writing, the German DAX index is down 1.08%, the UK FTSE 100 index is down 0.36%, the French CAC40 index is down 0.68%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 index is down 0.72%.

1. As of the time of writing, WTI crude oil is down 0.43%, priced at $64.71 per barrel. Brent crude oil is down 0.29%, priced at $69.11 per barrel.

Market News

What’s different this time? The US government is facing a shutdown crisis again; can the market really remain “calm” once more? As the Democratic and Republican parties in the US Congress are at an impasse over the federal government’s subsequent funding allocation plan, the risk of a partial government shutdown starting next week is continuously rising. If the government shuts down, it could impact the market by restricting the operations of financial regulatory agencies and delaying the release of key economic data. According to the emergency plan for government funding interruptions established by the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) in October 2024, if a shutdown occurs, the agency may significantly reduce its workforce, retaining only core team members. Nomura Securities analysts pointed out in a report this week that if the shutdown lasts for a long time, it could lead to delays or even cancellations of the release of key data necessary for investors to assess macroeconomic trends, such as monthly employment reports and inflation data.

Bank of America defends high valuations in US stocks: it’s a “new normal,” not a bubble. Historically, the US stock market is “extremely expensive.” However, Bank of America strategists argue that a deeper analysis reveals that such high valuations may be justified. The Bank of America team, led by Savita Subramanian, stated that 19 out of 20 internal indicators tracked by the bank indicate that the trading price of the S&P 500 index is at statistically significant highs, with 4 indicators reaching historical peaks. However, she believes that the inherent characteristics of the current index constituents, including lower financial leverage, lower earnings volatility, higher efficiency, and more stable profit margins than in previous decades, help support the high valuations.

Signals of the late-stage bull market in US stocks are emerging: investors are worried about missing out. Despite concerns about whether US stocks are in a bubble, investors who had previously hedged against downside risks are now beginning to worry about missing out on a potential year-end rally The derivatives market has sent such a signal: an indicator measuring the relative cost of call options has risen to its highest level since January. As the S&P 500 index continues to hit record highs, the previously rising cost of downside protection has begun to decline. This behavior appears to be typical late-stage bull market behavior—despite the accumulation of downside risks, the upward momentum is gaining strength. The fourth quarter has traditionally been one of the strongest periods for the stock market, so with the S&P 500 index breaking through 6,600 points this month, the biggest concern is missing out on the rally.

Federal Reserve's Daly: Further rate cuts may be needed, but caution is advised. San Francisco Fed President Daly stated that further rate cuts may be necessary, but the Federal Reserve should act cautiously when taking such measures. Daly said on Wednesday, "In the process of striving to restore price stability while providing necessary support to the labor market, further policy adjustments may be needed. But these are just forecasts, not commitments. To make the right decisions, we need to clarify our goals, weigh the pros and cons, and make choices repeatedly."

U.S. government paves the way for expanded tariffs: Investigating imports of robots, industrial machinery, and medical devices. The Trump administration has launched an investigation into imports of robots, industrial machinery, and medical devices, laying the groundwork for new tariff measures. According to the Federal Register, the U.S. Department of Commerce is conducting the investigation under Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act. The investigation began on September 2. Under this law, the president has the authority to impose tariffs on goods deemed critical to national security, and the U.S. Department of Commerce must submit its policy recommendations within 270 days. The newly announced investigation expands the range of industries that may be affected by tariffs, as Trump hopes to encourage domestic manufacturing in key industries by increasing the cost of imported goods. Investigations into the import of pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, aircraft, critical minerals, medium and heavy trucks, and other products are still ongoing.

Grasberg mine accident leads to a 525,000-ton reduction in output, Goldman Sachs lowers global copper mine supply forecast. The Grasberg copper mine in Indonesia, the second-largest copper mine in the world, has experienced production disruptions due to a mudslide accident on September 8, leading Goldman Sachs to lower its global copper mine supply expectations for 2025 and 2026. Goldman estimates that this disruption will result in a total loss of 525,000 tons of copper mine supply, specifically lowering the global mine supply forecast for the second half of 2025 by 160,000 tons and for 2026 by 200,000 tons. The Grasberg copper mine's output is expected to decrease by 250,000 to 260,000 tons in 2025, with a further decline of 270,000 tons in 2026. Goldman stated that Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold revealed that the mine's output in the fourth quarter of 2025 will be at a very low level due to the accident, with unaffected areas accounting for about 30%-40% of annual capacity, and production is expected to resume in the middle of this quarter; the remaining portion is planned to restart mining at some point in 2026.

Individual Stock News

Accenture (ACN.US) Q4 revenue exceeds expectations at $17.6 billion. Accenture's fourth-quarter revenue reached $17.6 billion, exceeding market expectations of $17.4 billion, with annual revenue growth of 7% to $69.7 billion. Although U.S. federal business is expected to slow due to government cuts in consulting fees, negatively impacting revenue by 1%-1.5% for fiscal year 2026, the company still expects revenue growth of 3%-6% when excluding this factor To respond to market changes, Accenture plans to return at least $9.3 billion in cash to shareholders over the next year, an increase of about $1 billion from the previous year. Accenture is accelerating its artificial intelligence strategic layout—having launched Agentic AI training for over 700,000 employees and plans to expand its workforce in the U.S. and European markets to meet customer demand.

Former major client Apple (AAPL.US) may become a "savior"? Intel (INTC.US) issues a "hero's call" seeking investment to aid revival. Chip manufacturer Intel has extended an invitation to Apple, hoping the latter will invest in it. Currently, Intel is not performing well and has partially been held by the U.S. government; this investment solicitation is one of its measures to boost business. According to informed sources, Apple and Intel have also discussed "deepening cooperation." However, the source emphasized that negotiations are still in the preliminary stage, and an agreement may not ultimately be reached. If Apple and Intel reach an investment agreement, it will be another significant external support for Intel in recent times. Last week, NVIDIA (NVDA.US) announced it would invest $5 billion in Intel and plans to collaborate with Intel on developing personal computer and data center chips. Apple was a long-term customer of Intel but has shifted to using self-developed processors over the past five years.

Nippon Steel (NPSCY.US) acknowledges differences with the U.S. government regarding "golden share" rights in acquisition case. The president of Japan's Nippon Steel recently stated that there are slight differences between the company and the U.S. government regarding the "golden share" rights related to the acquisition deal with U.S. Steel. Last week, media reports indicated that the Trump administration had exercised the so-called "golden share" power to prevent U.S. Steel from closing production plans at one of its Illinois plants. Nippon Steel President Masahiro Imai responded to this matter by stating: "There are slight differences in views between both parties regarding national security agreements and golden share rights." He did not elaborate but pointed out that recent actions by the U.S. side reflect the Trump administration's policy direction to protect domestic production bases and jobs. Imai emphasized: "By executing specific investment projects, we will focus on enhancing the competitiveness of U.S. Steel and advancing the partnership between both parties."

Bullish bets increase! AI ambitions soar, Alibaba (BABA.US) occupies the "C position" of Chinese concept tech stocks. Due to spending on artificial intelligence projects, Alibaba has once again become the hottest tech stock in China. Investors are flocking back to the stock market of this $420 billion internet giant. On Wednesday, Alibaba's U.S. stock surged significantly, with an increase of up to 10%, ultimately closing up 8%. The Hong Kong stock has risen 50% so far in September, becoming the best-performing stock in the Hang Seng Tech Index. On Wednesday, the company announced plans to increase investment in the field of artificial intelligence and establish new partnerships with NVIDIA (NVDA.US), which became the latest driving force behind its stock price increase and also boosted the sentiment of peers and suppliers.

Circle (CRCL.US) explores a "reversible" mechanism for stablecoin transactions, balancing fraud prevention and settlement finality. Circle, the world's second-largest stablecoin issuer, is exploring the introduction of a "reversible" mechanism for its token transactions The possibility of a "reversible" mechanism. Circle President Heath Tarbert stated on Thursday that the company is exploring a mechanism that would allow transactions to be rolled back in specific scenarios such as fraud or hacking, while still maintaining the finality of settlement. He emphasized, "We are thinking about whether transactions can be reversible, but at the same time, we still need to retain the finality of settlement. There is indeed a fundamental contradiction between supporting instant asset transfers and maintaining the irreversibility of transactions." If such measures are implemented, they would significantly differ from the blockchain "immutability" principle long advocated by the crypto industry— as a public digital ledger, blockchain technology should ensure that transaction records are tamper-proof.

Infringing on privacy and stifling innovation! Apple (AAPL.US) calls for the EU to repeal the Digital Markets Act. Apple is urging EU antitrust regulators to repeal the Digital Markets Act (DMA), claiming that these regulations pose privacy risks to users and could potentially undermine innovation. The American company reiterated its opposition to these regulations on Thursday. The EU implemented the DMA last year to protect consumer rights and ensure that large tech companies do not abuse their dominance in internet sectors ranging from mobile applications to search engines. In a blog post, Apple emphasized that it is complying with these rules but urged regulators to examine more closely the impact of these rules on individuals and businesses in the region. Apple further requested the regulatory body to repeal or scale back these regulations in a separate statement submitted to the European Commission.

Important Economic Data and Event Forecast

Beijing time 20:30: U.S. Q2 real GDP annualized quarterly rate final value (%), U.S. August durable goods orders month-on-month initial value (%), U.S. initial jobless claims for the week ending September 20 (10,000), U.S. August wholesale inventory month-on-month initial value (%).

Beijing time 22:00: U.S. August existing home sales annualized total (10,000 units).

Beijing time 20:20: 2025 FOMC voting member, Chicago Fed President Goolsbee speaks.

Beijing time 21:00: FOMC permanent voting member, New York Fed President Williams delivers a welcome speech at the fourth annual conference on the international role of the dollar, 2025 FOMC voting member, Kansas Fed President George speaks.

Next day Beijing time 01:00: Federal Reserve Governor Barr speaks on bank stress tests.

Next day Beijing time 01:40: Dallas Fed releases a speech draft from the regional Fed President Logan.

Next day Beijing time 03:30: 2027 FOMC voting member, San Francisco Fed President Daly speaks.

Earnings Forecast

Friday morning: Costco (COST.US)