According to the Zhitong Finance APP, driven by the trend towards high-end products, the average selling price (ASP) of the global smartphone market continues to grow year by year. According to the Counterpoint Research &#34;Market Outlook Tracking Report,&#34; the ASP of the global smartphone market is expected to rise from $357 in 2024 to $370 in 2025, and reach $412 by 2029, with a CAGR of 3%. In addition to the increase brought about by the high-end trend, the popularity of 5G and consumer preference for advanced features (even in mid-range models) have also contributed to this steady growth.
Looking ahead to the second quarter of 2025, market performance is expected to normalize more than previously anticipated. Counterpoint Research's latest forecast shows that global smartphone shipments will grow by 2.5% year-on-year in 2025, up from the first quarter forecast of 1.9%, but lower than the 4% expected at the beginning of the year. The slowdown in shipments is attributed to rising prices, supply chain adjustments, and macroeconomic pressures. The ASP in 2025 is expected to increase by 3.5% year-on-year to $370, higher than the previous forecast of 2.3%, mainly driven by rising ASP in North America and price recovery due to economic recovery in India and other regions in Asia-Pacific.
As the growth rate of ASP outpaces that of shipments, the combined improvement in both aspects will drive smartphone revenue to grow nearly 6% year-on-year in 2025. In the long term, this momentum is expected to sustain a 5% CAGR in revenue from 2025 to 2029, resulting in annual revenue reaching $564 billion by 2029.
Global smartphone market ASP forecast, 2022-2029
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Source: Counterpoint &#34;Market Outlook — ASP Forecast Tracking Report&#34;
Note: ASP is based on wholesale prices.
From the demand fluctuations during the pandemic to supply chain challenges, and the recent market fluctuations caused by tariffs, the global smartphone market is gradually returning to normal after years of turbulence. Continuous strong promotions by U.S. carriers have prevented inventory buildup, and smartphone brand manufacturers have maintained their regular release cycles and procurement strategies. Counterpoint's market outlook predicts that the market will become more &#34;normalized&#34; in the second half of 2025 to 2026, further confirming our forecast that average selling price growth and stable sales will sustain revenue growth. So far, smartphones have been largely unaffected by the tariffs imposed by the U.S. on trade partners, showing more resilience compared to the automotive, semiconductor, and other consumer electronics sectors. However, the uncertainty of U.S. tariffs and a sluggish macroeconomic environment may complicate the situation in the future.
Due to the impact of early shipments in the first half of the year, North American shipments are expected to decline in the second half of 2025, but tariff transmission will drive a 7% year-on-year increase in ASP for the entire year. Apple's high-end models, ongoing promotions by carriers, and the impressive performance of foldable products are expected to raise ASP to $984 in 2026. In the long term, the U.S. will play a stabilizing role in maintaining high global ASP, but since it is already a high-end market, it will provide a more gradual contribution to ASP before 2029
We expect that the trade environment will not trigger sudden price increases again, as the additional costs will be shared by suppliers, distributors, and consumers.
In China, the forecast for the second quarter of 2025 shows a slight decline in ASP compared to the first quarter. Based on the latest data tracking, Counterpoint has revised the year-on-year growth rate of ASP for the entire year of 2025 down from 4% to 3.6%. The structural uplift is mainly driven by Huawei, OPPO, and vivo. For Apple, it is expected that the ASP in China will increase by about 2% year-on-year in 2025; although shipments are slightly declining, the overall performance is better than our downward expectations in Q1, driven by the rising proportion of Pro models. Looking ahead, the trend towards high-end products in the Chinese market will continue to elevate global ASP and strengthen its influence in the global high-end smartphone market.
India will continue to support the mid-range market, with its ASP remaining below $250 in 2025, but as the trend towards high-end products evolves, prices are expected to gradually rise, reaching $287 by 2029. The migration of feature phone users to smartphones, rising demand in urban and rural areas, and the growth of digitalization will provide stable development momentum for mid-range and high-end models.
Apple remains the pillar of the high-end market, with its average selling price expected to rise from $919 in 2025 to nearly $1,000 by 2029, driven by its Pro and basic models (including the latest &#34;e&#34; and &#34;Air&#34; series). The iPhone 16e led to a 9% year-on-year decline in ASP in Q1 2025, but with the popularity of Pro models in the second half of the year, ASP is expected to improve. Apple is intentionally adopting a dual strategy: in terms of shipments, Apple is expanding its consumer base by entering emerging markets and consumer sectors through the e and Air series; in terms of ASP, Apple is consolidating its high-end dominance through Pro models while preparing for the launch of its first foldable product in 2026. In the long term (2026-2029), the United States, China, and Europe will remain Apple's core markets, while price-sensitive markets such as Latin America, the Middle East and Africa, and India will mainly rely on the basic and older iPhone models to drive shipment growth.
Global major smartphone brand ASP forecasts and CAGR, 2025-2029
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Source: Counterpoint &#34;Market Outlook - ASP Forecast Tracking Report&#34;
Samsung's ASP trend is expected to remain stable. In the first half of 2025, the performance of the brand's flagship models will lower its overall ASP for the year, but the integration of foldable phones and GenAI will support its long-term growth in the future. On the other hand, Samsung's significant share in the mid-range segment of emerging markets will limit its ASP growth potential
Huawei is strengthening its ASP growth in the domestic market after its return. With the easing of self-developed chip supply chain restrictions, Huawei's Mate and Pura series are driving its ASP higher. The strong performance of foldable smartphones further supports the growth of ASP. The user loyalty of HarmonyOS adds an advantage to high-end pricing, and we are optimistic about Huawei's expansion potential in overseas markets.
During the period of 2024-2025, the emergence of GenAI smartphones will lead to an increase in the bill of materials (BoM) cost of about $40-60 per device, raising prices at the onset of this type of smartphone. As AI matures, ASP growth will shift from &#34;cost-driven&#34; to &#34;value-driven,&#34; as consumers will be more willing to pay a premium for devices centered around AI features.
Although foldable smartphones currently account for less than 2% of global shipments, their ASP is continuously rising, further influencing consumer perceptions of high-end products. Apple is expected to launch a foldable smartphone by the end of 2026, which may bring a new round of ASP increases and reshape the industry benchmark for foldable smartphones.
Overall, the global smartphone ASP forecast is relatively optimistic. Currently, the impact of tariff fluctuations is diminishing, while the supply chain is stabilizing, and the popularity of high-end smartphones, along with innovations in GenAI and foldable screens, will jointly drive a moderate upward trend in ASP. This growth will be normalized rather than explosive, and thus, despite macroeconomic adverse factors, ASP will continue to rise steadily

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According to a report by Counterpoint Research, the average selling price (ASP) of the global smartphone market is expected to rise from USD 357 in 2024 to USD 370 in 2025, reaching USD 412 by 2029, with an average annual growth rate of 3%. This growth is driven by the trend towards high-end devices, the proliferation of 5G, and consumer preference for advanced features. It is expected that global smartphone shipments will increase by 2.5% year-on-year in 2025, with revenue growing by nearly 6%

- The global smartphone market's average selling price (ASP) is projected to rise from $357 in 2024 to $370 in 2025, driven by high-end trends and 5G adoption.  
- Despite a forecasted 2.5% increase in global smartphone shipments for 2025, challenges such as price hikes and macroeconomic pressures may impact growth.  
- Long-term projections indicate a steady ASP growth, with expectations of reaching $412 by 2029, supported by innovations like foldable phones and GenAI integration.

Counterpoint Research: It is expected that the average selling price of smartphones worldwide will rise from $370 in 2025 to $412 in 2029