Understanding the Market | Photovoltaic stocks' decline widened in the afternoon as the results of the mechanism electricity price bidding were released. Institutions claim that the photovoltaic installation capacity in the fourth quarter may significantly slow down
The decline of photovoltaic stocks expanded in the afternoon trading, with IRICO NEWENERGY down 5.16%, XINTE ENERGY down 3.73%, FLAT GLASS down 3.36%, and XINYI SOLAR down 2.63%. The Shandong Provincial Development and Reform Commission announced the bidding results for the 2025 new energy mechanism electricity prices, with the winning bid for photovoltaic at 0.225 yuan/kWh. Analysis indicates that the installed capacity of photovoltaics may significantly slow down in the fourth quarter due to policy-driven exit of backward production capacity, and the demand for installations in the second half of the year has been overdrawn, with expectations that the demand for polysilicon will continue to weaken
According to Zhitong Finance APP, the decline of photovoltaic stocks expanded towards the end of trading. As of the time of publication, IRICO NEWENERGY (00438) fell by 5.16% to HKD 2.39; XINTE ENERGY (01799) dropped by 3.73% to HKD 7.99; FLAT GLASS (06865) decreased by 3.36% to HKD 11.23; and XINYI SOLAR (00968) fell by 2.63% to HKD 3.33.
In terms of news, the Shandong Provincial Development and Reform Commission recently officially announced the bidding results for the new energy mechanism electricity prices in Shandong for 2025. Among them, the selected photovoltaic electricity volume is 1.248 billion kilowatt-hours, with a winning bid price of 0.225 yuan/kilowatt-hour. New Era Futures pointed out that after the rush to install before the "5.31" new policy, the market-oriented reform of photovoltaic electricity prices is being promoted, and the recent "anti-involution" policy is driving the orderly exit of backward production capacity. The photovoltaic installation volume in the fourth quarter may significantly slow down.
CITIC Futures stated that on the supply side, the production of polysilicon has rebounded to over 130,000 tons in August, and it is expected that high production of polysilicon will be maintained in September. In the medium to long term, attention should be paid to whether the anti-involution policy will restrict polysilicon supply. If the policy is delayed in implementation, high supply will continue. On the demand side, the growth rate of photovoltaic installations from January to May increased significantly, with a cumulative growth rate of 150%. However, this has also overdrafted the demand for installations in the second half of the year. In June, the domestic photovoltaic installation volume was only 14GW, and the installation volume further declined in July. Considering the decline in photovoltaic installations in the second half of the year and the weakening demand for battery module exports, there is a risk of continued weakening in polysilicon demand
