Is the government shutdown really coming for the first time in seven years? Trump threatens to shut it down, blaming the Democrats, and the House plans to adjourn until next month

The wolves may really be coming. Some signs indicate that if the Democrats do not concede to the threats from the Republicans, the risk of the U.S. federal government shutting down for the first time in nearly seven years will become a reality.

With only four days left until the October 1 deadline for government funding, the two parties remain deadlocked over healthcare issues, and negotiations have stalled. President Trump canceled a scheduled meeting with Democratic leaders, further escalating the risk of a shutdown.

On Friday, the 26th, Trump directly left the capital, Washington, spending most of the weekend at a golf tournament, showing no signs of mediating the conflict between the two parties. He made remarks that suggested he would allow the government to shut down, placing the blame entirely on the Democrats. Commentators believe that Trump's statements reflect the Republican leadership's confidence in gaining the upper hand in the shutdown standoff with the Democrats.

Senate Republican leader John Thune insisted on Friday that the Democrats must "retract" their healthcare demands, including extending the soon-to-expire healthcare subsidies established during the Obama administration. The House of Representatives is not scheduled to reconvene until October 1—the day the government would shut down.

If the federal government shuts down, hundreds of thousands of federal employees will face unpaid leave, "non-essential" services such as national parks will close, and key economic data like the non-farm payroll report may be delayed. The Trump administration has recently issued an unprecedented threat of large-scale permanent layoffs during a government shutdown.

Trump Leaves Washington, Shifts Blame for Shutdown

On Friday, some media commented that as time passes, a federal government shutdown seems increasingly inevitable rather than just a possibility. One reason for this conclusion is that Trump chose to leave Washington at a critical moment close to the shutdown, heading to New York to participate in the Ryder Cup golf tournament.

Before boarding Air Force One on Friday, Trump clearly stated:

"These Democrats are crazy; if we have to shut down, then shut it down. But it’s their fault that the government is shutting down."

Media pointed out that Senate Democratic leader Chuck Schumer and House Democratic leader Hakeem Jeffries proposed bipartisan dialogue on government funding issues, but so far, Thune and House Speaker Mike Johnson have consistently rejected their proposals for dialogue.

Trump also canceled his scheduled meetings with Schumer and Jeffries this week, further intensifying the political standoff.

Trump's budget office even issued a memo warning federal agencies to prepare for large-scale layoffs in the event of a government shutdown, a threat that far exceeds past practices.

Republican leaders have expressed confidence in gaining the upper hand in the shutdown struggle. They refuse to address the Democrats' healthcare priorities in the must-pass funding bill, believing that the Democrats will ultimately compromise.

Party Leaders Stand Firm, Negotiation Doors Closed

Senate Republican leader Thune stated that the Democrats must "retract" their demands, including extending healthcare subsidies for millions of Americans that are about to expire, as well as reversing the Medicaid cuts implemented by Republicans this year to pay for Trump's tax cuts Thune hinted at the possibility of negotiating an extension of the healthcare subsidies established under the Obama administration's Affordable Care Act in the future, provided that Democrats abandon their opposition to the seven-week temporary spending bill proposed by Republicans.

Thune plans to reconsider this short-term bill, which has already passed the House of Representatives, early next week.

Senate Democratic leader Schumer blocked the aforementioned Republican temporary spending bill last week, insisting that voters would blame Trump for attempting to cut healthcare benefits for millions. Schumer posted on social media, "Trump is making healthcare in America more expensive, and he is about to shut down the government for it."

Minnesota Democratic Senator Amy Klobuchar stated that Democrats are willing to negotiate on the request to avoid a government shutdown: "We never said we must get every demand." However, she expressed skepticism about Thune's commitment to future negotiations on healthcare subsidies.

Congressional Recess Continues, Stalemate Hard to Break in the Short Term

Media reports indicate that, like Trump, most U.S. lawmakers left Washington on Friday after a week-long recess. The House of Representatives even plans to resume its session only on October 1—when the government shutdown is officially set to begin. This lack of urgency starkly contrasts with the potential consequences of a government shutdown for many Americans.

House Democratic leader Jeffries stated that the situation could change rapidly: "In Washington, five days is like an eternity." However, congressional leaders have not shared any strategies to break the stalemate.

Media reports suggest that the key to breaking the deadlock lies in the Senate. For Republicans to pass the government spending bill in the Senate, they would need to win the support of at least seven Democratic senators in procedural votes, as most legislation requires 60 votes to overcome procedural hurdles.

Virginia Democratic Senator Tim Kaine expressed hope for "negotiations," suggesting that there may be room for compromise.

Currently, the only concession from Republicans is a commitment to discuss other matters by November 21, provided that Democrats accept a "clean" bill that does not include other policy demands beyond temporary spending.

Economic Data Releases Threatened, Trump Administration May Face Permanent Layoffs

If the government shuts down, approximately 850,000 "non-essential" federal employees are expected to be forced into unpaid leave, hundreds of national parks and museums will close, veteran services will be affected, health inspections will be paused, and immigration hearings will be delayed.

"Essential" services such as national security, law enforcement, and air traffic control will continue to operate but may be indirectly affected. Programs funded through "mandatory" spending, such as Social Security, will largely continue, but new registrations and other services may be paused.

Key economic data releases could be severely impacted. Wells Fargo economist Michael Pugliese noted that after the 2013 government shutdown, monthly employment and consumer price index reports "were delayed by about two weeks." The September employment report, scheduled for release on October 3, and the September CPI data on October 15 are both at risk of delay Media reported on Friday that, according to an emergency plan proposed by the U.S. Department of Labor in March this year, if the government shuts down, the non-farm payroll report for September, originally scheduled for release next Friday, October 3, will be postponed.

It is currently unclear what the specific scope of the government shutdown will be. Most government agencies, including the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), which is responsible for compiling the monthly employment report, have not publicly released updates on their emergency plans in the event of a government shutdown.

Moreover, the large-scale permanent layoffs threatened by the Trump administration are unprecedented. Typically, the government only temporarily furloughs employees, allowing them to return to work once Congress passes a new funding bill. Media reports indicate that this threat has caused panic among federal government employees