Guolian Minsheng Securities: White goods domestic sales remain stable, and vacuum cleaners embrace high prosperity
Guolian Minsheng Securities released a research report indicating that the domestic sales of white goods are expected to grow steadily in the third quarter of 2025, with year-on-year changes in sales for air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines at +5%, -1%, and flat, respectively. In terms of exports, air conditioners are expected to decline by 12%, refrigerators will remain flat, and washing machines will grow by 5%. The vacuum cleaner market performed strongly, with online retail sales increasing by 73% year-on-year, benefiting from subsidy policies and new product launches. Overall, the white goods industry faces challenges from a high base, but leading companies remain resilient
According to the Zhitong Finance APP, Guolian Minsheng Securities released a research report stating that in Q3 2025, the year-on-year growth rates for air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines are expected to be +5%/-1%/flat, respectively, which is a decrease compared to Q2. The policy flexibility in August-September 2024 has initially materialized, and the base has increased, in line with expectations. In terms of vacuum cleaners, Aowei Cloud Network indicated that the online retail sales of vacuum cleaners in July-August 2025 increased by 73% year-on-year, possibly benefiting from subsidies in various provinces and the launch of new products such as floor washing robots, with significant market share increases for ECOVACS and Roborock. Combining data from overseas apps and Amazon, the overseas vacuum cleaner market in Q3 2025 continues to show significant growth in both volume and price year-on-year, with the global industry prosperity being prominent, likely due to the combination of Chinese brands' high-end products' price reduction and consumers' proactive upgrades.
The main viewpoints of Guolian Minsheng Securities are as follows:
White Goods: Domestic sales remain stable, overseas trends are upward
Based on data from the industry online, the year-on-year sales volume for air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines in Q3 2025 is expected to be +5%/-1%/flat, respectively, which is a decrease compared to Q2. The policy flexibility in August-September 2024 has initially materialized, and the base has increased, in line with expectations. At the terminal level, the average prices for air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines in July-August decreased by -1%/+1%/+2% year-on-year, remaining overall stable. It is expected that the year-on-year external sales volume for air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines in Q3 2025 will be -12%/flat/+5%, with a high base for air conditioners, a slight improvement for refrigerators, and growth for washing machines. The decline in external sales shipments of air conditioners in August has narrowed, likely confirming a second inflection point.
Overall, considering both volume and price, domestic sales of white goods in Q3 are expected to grow steadily in the mid-single digits, with marginal improvements in external sales, and the resilience of leading brands is expected to continue. Among them, Haier's air conditioners are strong, benefiting from interest rate cuts in North America. In Q3 2025, bulk prices are expected to rise slightly, with a relatively stable cost environment; leading brands are improving channel/marketing efficiency, and the scale benefits of emerging industries/markets are becoming apparent, driving profit increases, with performance growth expected to exceed revenue growth.
Vacuum Cleaners: Embracing high prosperity, leading performance growth
Aowei Cloud Network indicated that the online retail sales of vacuum cleaners in July-August 2025 increased by 73% year-on-year, possibly benefiting from subsidies in various provinces and the launch of new products such as floor washing robots, with significant market share increases for ECOVACS and Roborock. Combining data from overseas apps and Amazon, the overseas vacuum cleaner market in Q3 2025 continues to show significant growth in both volume and price year-on-year, with the global industry prosperity being prominent, likely due to the combination of Chinese brands' high-end products' price reduction and consumers' proactive upgrades. Additionally, the internal and external sales of floor washing machines are also expected to achieve growth in July-August 2025. Under the comprehensive impact, the cleaning appliance sector is expected to achieve high double-digit revenue growth in Q3.
On this basis, Roborock is expected to execute a more flexible competitive strategy while firmly expanding the global market, and the scale effect of the second growth curve may be released. ECOVACS may promote cost reduction while enjoying the benefits of floor washing robot products, and with a low base for net profit margin, it is expected that the leading cleaning brands' profit growth will outpace the home appliance industry.
Improvement in black goods product structure, kitchen appliances/small home appliances bottoming out
In July-August 2025, the internal and external sales of color TVs decreased by -7%/-6% year-on-year, but the product structure continues to improve, with high-end products represented by MiniLED backlit TVs increasing their market share year-on-year under the leadership of Chinese leading brands, and the trend towards larger screens remains unchanged both domestically and internationally. Hisense V.T. is actively promoting high-end products such as MiniLED, maintaining a leading share in domestic sales, and after inventory adjustments in H1 2025, external sales operations are expected to improve, with year-on-year increases in average price and share ensuring that the company's revenue may continue the momentum from Q2 With the deepening of organizational changes and efficiency improvements in the group, profitability is also expected to achieve double-digit growth. In addition, the retail performance of the kitchen appliances and small home appliances industry remains relatively flat, and operations are still in the bottoming phase.
Outlook: Resilience may exceed expectations, relative valuation hits bottom
In Q3 2024, domestic policy elasticity is expected to be realized, with higher shipment/sales bases leading to a likely weakening of growth rates on a month-on-month basis. However, during the last policy exit phase, leading companies showed resilience in revenue; the export shipment base is relatively high, and it is expected to converge towards a mid-single-digit growth rate after digesting short-term fluctuations. Throughout the year, the sector has shown continued weakness except for the peak season of air conditioning in April-May and performance windows; the short-term impacts of policy exit, tariffs, and base effects may have been fully priced in. Currently, the sector's relative valuation has fallen to nearly 1.0 times its historical low, with robust growth fundamentals. Leading companies exhibit excellent operating cash flow, emphasize shareholder returns, and with expectations of increased dividend rates and relative valuation hitting bottom, the advantages of dividend yield are highlighted.
Target Recommendations
Continuously recommend white goods Haier Smart Home (600690.SH), Midea Group (000333.SZ), Hisense H.A. (000921.SZ), Gree Electric Appliances (000651.SZ), black goods Hisense V.T. (600060.SH), and cleaning appliances Roborock (688169.SH), ECOVACS (603486.SH), among others.
Risk Warning
Policy realization may fall short of expectations; fluctuations in raw material prices and exchange rates; risks of tariffs and weaker external demand
