Breakfast | AMD has surged 43% over three days, NVIDIA invests in Musk's xAI

Market Overview The market saw a surge in buying on dips, driving a strong rebound in U.S. stocks on Wednesday, with the S&P and Nasdaq recovering all losses from the previous day. Enthusiasm for AI once again overshadowed concerns about its bubble, with the Nasdaq closing above 23,000 points for the first time in history. Chip stocks led the rally, with NVIDIA rebounding 2.2%, nearing its historical high, and AMD soaring over 11%. Dell rose over 9%. The yield on the two-year U.S. Treasury rose by more than 2 basis points, reaching a daily high after the release of the Federal Reserve's meeting minutes. Amid concerns over Japan's fiscal spending, the yen fell for the fifth consecutive day, dropping 0.57% intraday. Bitcoin briefly rebounded to $124,000, erasing most of Tuesday's losses. Driven by the dual factors of a government shutdown and expectations of interest rate cuts, gold broke through $4,000, while silver rose as much as 3.7% intraday. Crude oil saw a spike before retreating, with U.S. oil touching $63 and ultimately closing up 0.36%. During the Asian session, both the Hang Seng Index and the Hang Seng Tech Index closed lower, with AI concept stocks leading the decline, while gold and nuclear power stocks surged against the trend. Key News Federal Reserve Minutes: Most officials indicated that continued easing this year may be appropriate, while a minority might have supported no rate cuts in September. U.S. government shutdown has entered its second week with no resolution: The Senate rejected a bipartisan temporary funding bill for the sixth time. U.S. Congressional Budget Office: The federal budget deficit for the last fiscal year was $1.8 trillion, almost unchanged from the 2024 fiscal year. Jensen Huang: AI demand has surged in the past six months, with NVIDIA investing in Musk's xAI, regrettably not investing more, and expressing surprise at AMD's agreement to give OpenAI up to 10% equity. Reports indicate that Tesla has continuously lowered its production target for the “Optimus” robot, which has dropped to 2,000 units this summer. The AI “closed loop” continues: Musk's xAI is nearing a $20 billion fundraising goal, with NVIDIA investing $2 billion in equity linked to chips. Alibaba is personally involved, with Tongyi Qianwen leading the formation of a robotics AI team. ASIC leader Chipone's Q3 performance exploded: AI orders drove record revenue, and a profit turning point may not be far off. AMD has soared 43% over three days! The milestone agreement with OpenAI has driven up stock prices, with analysts collectively raising targets. Investment banks are bullish, with Dell's stock price target being raised consecutively, leading to a single-day surge of 9% in stock price. The 2025 Nobel Prize in Chemistry was announced: three scientists were awarded for their contributions in the development of metal-organic frameworks. Google has continuously won Nobel Prizes: AI won last year's chemistry prize, and quantum computing won this year's physics prize. Putin: It is essential to ensure that all objectives set for the special military operation are achieved unconditionally. The Russian Deputy Foreign Minister stated that the momentum for a meeting between the Russian and U.S. leaders has basically been exhausted, and “Tomahawk” missiles could lead to a fundamental change in the situation Sources say Hamas has agreed to a ceasefire agreement in Gaza, Trump: Israel and Hamas have signed the first phase of the "20-point plan," may go to the Middle East this weekend. IMF and Bank of England jointly issued a statement, global official institutions have issued the clearest warning about the AI bubble. Market Report US and European Stock Markets: The S&P 500 index rose 0.58%, closing at 6753.72 points, setting a new closing historical high after one trading day. The Dow Jones slightly fell, closing at 46601.78 points. The Nasdaq rose 1.12%, closing at 23043.378 points, setting a new closing historical high after one day. The European STOXX 600 index closed up 0.79%, at 573.79 points. A-shares are closed. Bond Market: The yield on the US 10-year Treasury rose by 0.58 basis points, closing at 4.1287%. The yield on the 2-year Treasury rose by 2.07 basis points, closing at 3.5843%. Commodities: WTI November crude oil futures rose 1.33%, closing at $62.55 per barrel. Brent December crude oil futures rose 1.22%, closing at $66.25 per barrel. COMEX gold futures rose 1.43%, closing at $4061.70 per ounce. News Details Global Highlights Federal Reserve Minutes: Most officials say continuing easing this year may be appropriate, a few may have supported no rate cut in September. "New Federal Reserve News Agency" reported that the minutes of the September FOMC meeting show that Federal Reserve officials have differing views on the extent of rate cuts, with some officials believing that a rate cut was unnecessary last month or could have supported maintaining rates. The recent government shutdown has delayed the release of several economic data, limiting the information available to Federal Reserve officials in assessing the economic outlook. US government shutdown unresolved for over a week: Senate rejects bipartisan temporary funding bill for the sixth time**.**Like the previous five votes, the Democratic proposal received no support from Republican lawmakers.The Republican proposal did not meet the required threshold of 60 votes for approval, with only three Democratic lawmakers crossing over to support it. The two parties continue to disagree on extending healthcare subsidies. Republicans insist that the government must be reopened before negotiations can take place. Democrats accuse Republicans of controlling the government while allowing it to shut down, stating that the Republican Speaker of the House is the real obstacle to resolving the crisis. Under pressure from the ongoing shutdown, the IRS announced that nearly half of its employees, about 34,000 people, will be furloughed The U.S. Congressional Budget Office: The U.S. federal government budget deficit for the last fiscal year was $1.8 trillion, nearly unchanged from fiscal year 2024. Despite a significant increase in tariff revenue, according to the CBO, as of September 30, 2025, the U.S. federal government recorded a budget deficit of $1.8 trillion, only $8 billion less than in 2024, nearly unchanged. Trump's tariff policy brought approximately $195 billion in tariff revenue to the federal government in fiscal year 2025. U.S. fiscal revenue increased by $308 billion, a growth of 6%, but expenditures also rose by about $301 billion, a growth of 4%, mainly driven by interest payments on national debt. Public debt interest payments have surpassed the $1 trillion mark for the first time. Jensen Huang: AI demand has surged in the past six months, NVIDIA invested in Musk's xAI, regrettably not more, and feels the same about OpenAI. Jensen Huang stated that the demand for Blackwell is "very, very high," and we are at the beginning of a new industrial revolution; he wants to be involved in almost everything Musk is involved in; the only regret about NVIDIA's investment in OpenAI is not investing more; he was surprised by AMD's agreement to give OpenAI up to 10% equity. Regarding the U.S.-China AI competition, he believes China is far ahead in energy construction. Reports indicate that Tesla continues to lower the production target for the "Optimus" robot, which has dropped to 2,000 units this summer. Tesla has abandoned its mass production plan for this year and is reallocating resources to tackle hand design and make other improvements. The AI "closed loop" continues: Musk's xAI is close to raising $20 billion, NVIDIA invests $2 billion for equity linked to "chips". The transaction is not a direct investment in xAI but operates through the establishment of a Special Purpose Vehicle (SPV). This SPV will use the raised funds to purchase NVIDIA processors, and subsequently, xAI will obtain the right to use these chips through a five-year lease agreement with the SPV, allowing Wall Street financial investors to recoup their investments. Alibaba personally intervenes, Tongyi Qianwen leads the establishment of a robot AI team. Lin Junyang, the technical head of Tongyi Qianwen, revealed that Alibaba has formed a "robot and embodied AI group." He stated that multimodal foundational models are being transformed into foundational agents that can utilize tools and memory to perform long-term reasoning through reinforcement learning, and these applications "should transition from the virtual world to the real world." "ASIC Leader" Chip Origin's Q3 Performance Explodes: AI Orders Drive Record Revenue, Profit Turning Point May Be Near. Chip Origin has just released an impressive Q3 operational data forecast, with nearly all indicators exceeding expectations. For investors still viewing this company through the outdated label of "the first stock in semiconductor IP," this data is undoubtedly a strong reminder: Chip Origin's growth engine has switched, and the narrative of AI ASIC (Application-Specific Integrated Circuit) is being validated by data. AMD Soars 43% in Three Days! Stock Price Soars with Milestone Agreement with OpenAI, Analysts Raise Targets. AMD recorded its largest three-day gain in nine years, closing up 11% to a historic high on Wednesday, and nearly 24% on the day the OpenAI agreement was announced. This week, 26 Wall Street analysts have raised AMD's target price, with the highest target price at $300, indicating that AMD may rise nearly 30% after this week's three-day surge. Investment Banks Are Bullish, Dell's Stock Price Target Raised Successively, Stock Price Soars 9% in a Single Day. On Wednesday, UBS Group significantly raised Dell's target price from $155 to $186, a 20% increase, while maintaining a buy rating. Previously, Mizuho Securities also raised its target price from $160 to $170, and Melius Research even set a target price of $200. These adjustments reflect analysts' general belief that Dell's leadership position in the enterprise AI sector will translate into sustainable revenue and profit growth. Nobel Prize in Chemistry 2025 Announced: Three Scientists Awarded, Recognized for Their Contributions in the Development of Metal-Organic Frameworks. Google Wins Nobel Prize Again! AI Wins Last Year's Chemistry Prize, Quantum Computing Wins This Year's Physics Prize. Winning consecutively is not only an academic honor but also reflects Google's ability to transform its investment in fundamental research into core competitiveness, providing strong support for its leading position in the upcoming technological revolution and becoming an important indicator for investors to assess the company's long-term value. Putin: All Goals Set by the Special Military Operation Must Be Unconditionally Achieved. According to CCTV News, Putin also pointed out that the strategic initiative is currently fully in the hands of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation, with Ukrainian forces continuously retreating along the entire contact line. The Ukrainian side's strikes on purely civilian facilities deep within Russian territory are intended to showcase achievements to their Western "sponsors." Russian Deputy Foreign Minister: The momentum for the Russia-U.S. leaders' meeting has basically been exhausted, and "Tomahawk" missiles could lead to a fundamental change in the situation. Ryabkov stated that the strong momentum created by the Russia-U.S. leaders' meeting in Alaska in August was conducive to reaching an agreement, but this momentum has largely been exhausted, "mainly due to the destructive activities of Europeans." If the West indeed provides "Tomahawk" cruise missiles to Ukraine, it would mean a fundamental change in the situation, but this will not affect Russia's determination to achieve the goals of its special military operation. Sources say Hamas has agreed to a ceasefire agreement in Gaza, Trump: Israel and Hamas have signed the first phase of the "20-point plan," may go to the Middle East this weekend. "AI Closed Loop" holiday trending! Understanding the North American data center supply chain. In this unprecedented gold rush ignited by AI, those supply chain giants that master core cooling and power supply technologies, capable of "cooling" and "feeding" massive computing power, will undoubtedly become the real winners. Current status of the AI industry chain: Upstream NVIDIA and TSMC are profiting, while downstream faces high debt and low profits. The AI boom is creating a clear industrial landscape. Chip and server manufacturers in the upstream of the industry chain are enjoying substantial profits, while many downstream cloud service providers and application developers are mired in high costs and low profits, with rising debt levels ringing alarm bells for the industry. IMF and Bank of England speak out! Global official institutions issue the clearest warning about the AI bubble. IMF President Georgieva stated on Wednesday that the market's optimistic sentiment about AI's potential to enhance productivity could suddenly shift, impacting the global economy. On the same day, the Bank of England pointed out that the current market sentiment is similar to the situation before the burst of the internet bubble in 2000, indicating a risk of sudden adjustments in global financial markets. Media analysis suggests that the statements from the IMF and the Bank of England are the clearest warnings from global official institutions regarding the potential burst of the AI-driven market bubble. Goldman Sachs' "AI Narrative Framework": Five key controversies about AI. Goldman Sachs believes that the five major controversies in the AI field include: rapid adoption of consumer AI but delayed monetization; corporate AI deployment expanding but with limited ROI, with only 5% of companies seeing measurable benefits; unprecedented investment in AI infrastructure, with the five major cloud service providers expected to reach $381 billion in capital expenditures by 2025, a year-on-year increase of 68%; AI workloads will drive a 165% increase in global data center power demand by 2030; despite concerns about bubbles, current valuation levels still have a 46% discount compared to the internet bubble period. Domestic Companies Innovent Biologics reaches over $2 billion licensing agreement, core product makes breakthrough overseas. Innovent Biologics has opened a new chapter in the globalization journey of its core product, Ibrutinib, through a significant licensing agreement potentially worth over $2 billion. The collaboration with U.S. biopharmaceutical company Zenas BioPharma not only brings substantial near-term cash flow and equity returns to Innovent Biologics but also marks the successful locking in of a new international partner in the critical field of autoimmune diseases, injecting key momentum into its internationalization strategy. Overseas Macro "Inclusion" in the FTSE Russell Emerging Markets Index, Vietnam's stock index hits historic high. The decision by FTSE Russell to include Vietnam in its Emerging Markets Index is expected to attract billions of dollars in foreign investment and boost its capital markets, marking significant recognition from the international investment community following Vietnam's implementation of market-friendly reforms. Overseas Companies OpenAI acquires chips, AMD gains market, and ultimately investors "foot the bill"? OpenAI will use AMD's own stock to pay for expenses. This unique financing arrangement essentially allows AMD to provide financing for large purchases by customers, with the final costs potentially borne by investors driving up stock prices. Where does the $1 trillion order for OpenAI come from? By deeply binding suppliers through "circular financing" and pioneering "equity-for-purchase" models, OpenAI is rewriting the capital rules of the AI era. According to Goldman Sachs, after accounting for future massive capital expenditures, OpenAI's total funding needs for 2026 will soar from $35 billion to approximately $114 billion, with the proportion of external equity and debt financing needs surging to 75%. Longer than expected, this round of "old storage" price increase cycle will last until 2026. While mainstream chips are surging, the old storage chip market is opening a noteworthy profit window. When the "largest traditional financial exchange" invests in the "largest on-chain prediction market," "asset tokenization" enters mainstream view. The parent company of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), announced a $2 billion strategic investment in the prediction market Polymarket The transaction values Polymarket at approximately $8 billion pre-investment. This collaboration will build a complete tokenized data market ecosystem. By anchoring event data and derivatives on a transparent, verifiable decentralized financial market, while ensuring distribution and compliance through a mature intermediary, this partnership is expected to meet the needs of both crypto-native participants and institutional end users. The scale of Bitcoin held by MSTR is approaching the cash on the books of Amazon, Google, and Microsoft. The 640,031 Bitcoins held by MicroStrategy once surpassed $8 billion in value. This figure brings the scale of its corporate treasury close to that of Amazon, Google, and Microsoft, each of which holds approximately $95 billion to $97 billion in cash or cash equivalents. SoftBank cash acquires the robotics business of "industrial robot giant" ABB, valued at $5.375 billion! This transaction values the robotics business at $5.375 billion. The completion of this agreement also means that ABB has abandoned its previous plan to spin off the robotics business and make it publicly listed. This acquisition is a significant strategic layout for SoftBank in the field of artificial intelligence, particularly in the direction of "physical AI." Today's News Preview China's September financial data. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's speech. Federal Reserve Governor Bowman’s speech. The European Central Bank releases the minutes of the September monetary policy meeting. Nobel Prize in Literature winners announced.