CICC: The box office for National Day films is weak, pay attention to the performance of key imported films at the end of the year

According to a research report released by China International Capital Corporation (CICC), based on data from EntGroup, the total box office for the first seven days of the National Day holiday (October 1 to October 7) in 2025 is 1.73 billion yuan (as of 10 a.m. on October 8, including service fees, the same below), a decrease of 17.8% compared to last year's total box office for the same period. It is expected that the total box office for the entire holiday period of eight days may be lower than the previously expected neutral scenario of 2.8 billion yuan. The film "The Volunteers: Bloodbath for Peace" has accumulated a box office of over 400 million yuan, ranking first. In terms of content, this year's holiday period saw no single film surpassing 500 million yuan (one film did in the same period of 2024), and there are many films with box office earnings between 100 million to 300 million yuan, lacking major films. Looking ahead, it is recommended to continue monitoring the box office performance of upcoming films, especially the elasticity of key imported films at the end of the year.

CICC's main viewpoints are as follows:

Lack of major films, box office performance during the holiday period is flat

The box office for the first seven days of the 2025 National Day holiday is 1.73 billion yuan, a decrease of 17.8% compared to the same period last year, lower than expected; the number of moviegoers is 47.12 million, a decrease of 9.6% compared to the same period last year; the average ticket price is 36.7 yuan, a decrease of 9.1% compared to the same period last year. From a time perspective, the box office on the first day of this year's National Day holiday was 320 million yuan, also showing a decline year-on-year. Due to the impact of concentrated travel during the long holiday and the lack of major films, the box office for the holiday period did not meet expectations.

Box office of films during the holiday period is relatively balanced, competitive landscape at the channel level is basically stable

In terms of content: As of October 7, the film "The Volunteers: Bloodbath for Peace," produced mainly by China Film, achieved a box office of 428 million yuan, accounting for 24.8% of the total box office. "731" and "Assassination Novelist 2" ranked second and third, with box office shares of 19.2% and 16.2%, respectively. This year's holiday period saw no single film surpassing 500 million yuan (one film did in the same period of 2024), and there are many films with box office earnings between 100 million to 300 million yuan, lacking major films. At the channel level: The top ten film investment companies have a combined market share of 33.1%, slightly down year-on-year. The current competitive landscape in cinemas is relatively stable.

Focus on the performance of key imported films at the end of the year

CICC believes that the supply of quality content is still a key factor in boosting viewing demand. Looking ahead, according to MAOYAN ENT Professional Edition, the scheduled domestic films include "Impromptu Murder" (10/31), "The Nameless: Significance" (12/31), "Hidden Kill" (12/31), etc.; imported films include "Creation: God of War" (10/17), "Zootopia 2" (11/26), etc., and the introduction of "Avatar: The Way of Water" has been confirmed. It is recommended to continue monitoring the box office performance of upcoming films, especially the elasticity of key imported films at the end of the year.

Target aspects

It is recommended to pay attention to offline entertainment platforms such as Damai Entertainment (01060) and MAOYAN ENT (01896), as well as content IP companies like Shanghai Film (601595.SH).

Risk factors

The quality of film content and box office performance may fall short of expectations, competition may intensify, and industry regulation may tighten