According to "The Big Bank" research, Meituan's food delivery losses are expected to peak in the third quarter, with a target price lowered to 114 yuan, recommending a "buy."

AASTOCKS
2025.10.13 04:20

HSBC Research published a report, continuing to believe that Meituan (03690.HK) will see its food delivery business losses peak in the third quarter of this year and significantly narrow in the fourth quarter. Meituan is expected to maintain better operational efficiency than its peers in the medium to long term, keeping the scale of losses relatively controlled. However, considering that the overall market's investment efforts exceed expectations, the bank has raised its loss forecast, especially in the short term.

The bank stated that due to major competitor Alibaba-W (09988.HK) focusing on maintaining long-term market share and scale in the Quick Commerce business, competition is expected to continue, causing Meituan's food delivery business to take longer to regain profitability. The bank estimates that the operating loss for the food delivery business in the third quarter will reach RMB 20 billion, which translates to a loss of RMB 2.9 per order.

The bank has lowered its profit margin forecast for the total gross merchandise volume (GTV) of the food delivery business for 2025 to 2027 by 0.3 to 0.9 percentage points, reducing the target price from RMB 125 to RMB 114, while maintaining a "Buy" rating

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